No. 20 LSU is hosting No. 3 Texas A&M for a Week 9 matchup on Saturday afternoon. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
The Aggies are listed as 2.5-point road favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 48.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction, and best bet for this matchup between top 25 SEC powerhouses.
Texas A&M vs. LSU prediction, preview
Texas A&M Preview
Texas A&M (7-0) is having a spectacular season, with an SEC Championship and College Football Playoff berth being totally realistic. The Aggies have a solid running game, despite being without starting running back Le’Veon Moss. They also have a dynamic receiving duo, Mario Craver and KC Concepcion. The Aggies haven’t been perfect on defense, but they have a talented unit that has been good enough in big spots to win games. Quarterback Marcel Reed has taken a massive leap after a promising freshman season. This team is capable of beating anybody in the country, but needs to remain focused through a challenging SEC schedule to ensure they reach their goals.
LSU Preview
LSU (5-2) has sputtered out in recent weeks. While they started the season 4-0, including wins over Clemson and Florida, the Tigers never looked overly convincing in those wins. That is why the Tigers losing two of their past three games has not been particularly surprising. LSU did not have enough offense to beat Ole Miss, and didn’t have enough defense to beat Vanderbilt. The Tigers have a tough defense and were able to slow down Ole Miss, but the Garrett Nussmeier-led offense has not been able to get anything going all season. The LSU signal-caller finally started playing better last week against Vanderbilt, but the LSU defense could not stop Commodores QB Diego Pavia. This team needs to win out to make the College Football Playoff, and the way that they’re playing makes that very unlikely.
Texas A&M vs. LSU pick, best bet
My best bet for this game is for Texas A&M to cover the short spread on the road. The Aggies are better in almost every aspect of the game. LSU has a tough defense, ranking 31st in EPA/play and 32nd in success rate. However, the Texas A&M offense ranks 15th in EPA/play and 30th in success rate. Marcel Reed should be able to move the ball against LSU, just like Diego Pavia did against them last week. The one way to attack Texas A&M is on the ground. The Aggies have only struggled defensively in two games this season, against Arkansas and Notre Dame, two of the best rushing offenses in the country. LSU legitimately cannot run the football. They rank 104th in EPA/rush and 129th in rushing success rate. Their offense is one-dimensional and Texas A&M should stand up to their passing attack. The Aggies should go into Baton Rouge and come out with a win and a cover.
