These are my picks to win every Week 8 NFL game straight up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier.
You can bet on any of these games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 8 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Colts over Titans
The Colts are looking to keep the momentum against an awful Titans team. Measuring by EPA/play, this is the best offense in the NFL against the worst offense in the NFL. The Colts have an elite offense, but they also have a solid defense, which ranks 11th in the NFL in EPA/play. Among 31 qualified quarterbacks this season, Cam Ward ranks dead last in EPA+CPOE composite. The Cardinals had to hand the Titans the game, literally, for Tennessee to get its only win this season. The Colts should comfortably win this one at home.
Chiefs over Commanders
The Chiefs are playing like a Super Bowl team once again. Patrick Mahomes is the NFL MVP favorite early on this season, and he looks like an unstoppable force. This Commanders team is sputtering out. Between injuries and shaky play from Jayden Daniels, things aren’t looking good. Washington ranks 24th in defensive EPA/play and should have no luck slowing down the Mahomes machine.
Bills over Panthers
The Bills are coming off a bye week and should dominate the Panthers. Carolina is getting a lot of praise, some deserved, for winning three straight games. However, those wins came against two of the worst teams in the NFL, the Jets and Dolphins, and the Cowboys, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Bills are head-and-shoulders better than any of those teams, none of whom the Panthers even beat by more than one score. After a bye week, the Bills’ offense should be on fire and score way too much for the Panthers to keep up with.
Ravens over Bears
The Ravens are hoping to get Lamar Jackson back this week. If they do, it could give them a boost to keep their season alive. At 1-5, things look bleak in Baltimore, but they are not out of the playoff picture. Like the Bills, the Ravens are coming off a desperately-needed bye week. They had a chance to get healthy and fix their defense. Last season, they had a really poor defense, especially against the pass. However, following their bye week, they only allowed 11.25 PPG the rest of the season. They should be prepared for the Bears, and if Lamar Jackson does return, it should jumpstart them to get a win.
Falcons over Dolphins
The Falcons are coming off a Sunday Night Football loss on the road against the 49ers. This Atlanta team has been much different at home than on the road. The offense is averaging 26 PPG at home this season, compared to 10.7 PPG on the road. This Falcons defense is the real deal. It ranks eighth in the NFL in defensive EPA/play and eighth in points per game allowed. It should shut down this Dolphins team, which is on its last legs.
Medium Confidence
Patriots over Browns
The Patriots are playing like one of the NFL’s best teams at the moment. Drake Maye is playing at an MVP level, leading all quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite. The offense is firing on all cylinders and should be a good match for the Cleveland defense. While the Browns have an elite defense, it has been much better at home. In Cleveland, they are giving up just 13.7 points per game, compared to 32.7 points per game on the road. Granted, their tougher games have come on the road, but the Patriots have to now be considered one of those tough games.
Bengals over Jets
The Bengals are showing signs of life with Joe Flacco. They are coming off a great win over the Steelers last Thursday. Cincinnati is on extended rest, which also finally gives Flacco a chance to get acquainted with his new teammates. This team is loaded with elite skill-position players and Flacco is capable of distributing the ball to those guys. The Jets have yet to win a game this season, and this spot against Cincinnati does not seem like the spot where they get one. They simply don’t have enough offense to keep up with the Bengals.
Eagles over Giants
The Eagles finally got back on track with a good win over the Vikings last week. This is a scary matchup against a Giants team that just beat them a couple of weeks ago. However, the Eagles should have learned a lot from that tape and should have a better plan to slow down the Giants. Their passing offense is starting to come to life, and they should be able to hit shots down the field against the Giants’ secondary. The Giants are a hard team to beat at the moment, but the Eagles should get their revenge in this spot.
Buccaneers over Saints
The Buccaneers are coming off a primetime road loss to the Lions, nothing to be ashamed of. Baker Mayfield is having a great season, and despite his weapons getting injured all around him, new faces continue to step up. The Tampa Bay defense struggled against the Lions, but it should have much better success against the Saints. New Orleans ranks 28th in the NFL in offensive EPA/play, simply lacking the firepower to beat a Baker Mayfield-led offense.
Coin-Flip Games
Chargers over Vikings
The Chargers are tied with the Chiefs and are a game behind the Broncos in the AFC West race. This is a highly competitive division, and the Chargers need to win games like this to stay in the divisional race. The Vikings are starting Carson Wentz once again, who has really struggled over the past couple of weeks. Justin Herbert has a great stable of weapons and needs to go win this game on Thursday night.
Packers over Steelers
The Packers and Steelers face off in the Rodgers Bowl on Sunday. This is low down on my confidence list because it seems like the type of game that Aaron Rodgers would win over his former team. The Packers have also not looked overly convincing as of late. That being said, the Packers are the better team, so I will still back them to get the win. Green Bay ranks fourth in offensive EPA/play, while Pittsburgh ranks 25th in defensive EPA/play. The Packers should score too many points to lose this game.
49ers over Texans
The 49ers are coming off a great primetime win. They have been dealing with injuries all season, but should be healthier for Sunday, possibly even getting Brock Purdy back. The Texans are a tough defensive team, but the offense has been dreadful. The injuries are stacking up for the Texans, and the 49ers should be able to pull off the win in Houston.
Cowboys over Broncos
The Cowboys are starting to play great football. The offense has been one of the best in the league all season, ranking second in offensive EPA/play. However, their defense was holding them back. It is still not a good unit, but they showed some real toughness last week against Washington. This Denver offense is not particularly explosive, and Dallas should keep it in check, allowing the Cowboys’ offense to win this one for their team.
