The NFL season is flying by, with Week 8 already having arrived. The action will kick off with a matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings. Both teams have hit some bumps in the road at the midpoint of the season and are looking to regroup and find their stride.
Los Angeles got off to a 3-0 start but has dropped three of its last four, with the lone victory being a narrow 29-27 win over the Dolphins. Justin Herbert has had some uncharacteristic interception issues, with six over his past five games. This comes after Herbert had just three all of last season before tossing four in the postseason loss.
On the other side of the matchup, Minnesota enters with a 3-3 record, which puts it in last place in the competitive NFC North. J.J. McCarthy’s injury recovery is not going as hoped, and it is trending toward Carson Wentz making his fifth straight start. Expectations were high following Minnesota’s 14-3 record last year, and it needs to find a way to perform at a more consistent level on the field.
Looking at the odds for the Week 8 Thursday Night Football matchup, the Chargers enter as three-point favorites and hold -175 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Vikings hold +145 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 44.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action outside of backing a side or total. This article will look at my top three favorite player prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 8 Thursday Night Football matchup.
Vikings at Chargers Best Prop Bets
Justin Herbert Under 252.5 Passing Yards (-111)
Now in his sixth NFL season, Justin Herbert remains one of the more interesting quarterbacks in football. His biggest fans will point to the flaws around him as the reason for his lack of success and the highlight reel plays that keep you bought in. His biggest critics will point to Herbert’s 45-41 career record and the postseason collapses that have been put on full display. There is some truth to both of these thought processes, but it looked as if the 27-year-old was turning the corner at the start of this season. Despite this, it is tough to feel great about backing Herbert in his current state with this matchup in mind.
Minnesota’s defense ranks seventh in total passing yards allowed, with 16 sacks tallied across its opening six games. This will be especially problematic against a Chargers offensive line that is beat up and has not been performing up to standard across the board. Herbert has been hit an NFL-most 62 times already this season and sacked 20 times. For reference, Cam Ward has been hit the next-most at 44 times, although he has been sacked 30 times. Minnesota ranks right near the top of the league in pass rush win rate and has been productive against better protection units.
Expect Herbert to fail to get time to set his feet at a regular rate and be running for his life in this matchup. The Chargers star is averaging 273.3 passing yards per game on the season, but he has thrown for as few as 166 passing yards and been held to under 252.5 passing yards in three games. Count on the Vikings’ pass rush to be a huge storyline in the matchup and for Herbert to fail to see the necessary opportunities to throw for 252.5 passing yards with the defense consistently putting him under pressure.
Justin Herbert Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Using this same logic, look for Herbert to need to lean on his legs to escape the pass rush and turn this into some yardage. This has been an area where he has capitalized more this season. The Oregon product has rushed the ball at least once in every game and is averaging a career-high 26.6 rushing yards on the year. Herbert has rushed for over 17.5 rushing yards in five of the seven games so far.
Minnesota has done a nice job containing the run to this point at the quarterback position. Jalen Hurts finished with -10 rushing yards last week, Aaron Rodgers had eight rushing yards in his matchup, and Jake Browning had just three rushing yards against the Vikings. However, Caleb Williams picked up 58 yards on the ground in the opening week. This is closer to the script I expect for Herbert. He never looked quite right last year physically, and he has moved with more freedom this season.
The 17.5 line is a low bar that can be cleared in just one rush. But expect it to be required for Herbert to take off more than once. Count on the pass rush chasing him out of the pocket and for him to need to use his legs at a frequent rate. Herbert will always be a pocket passer at heart, but expect him to need to escape the pocket and pick up some yards with his legs in this game.
Justin Jefferson Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Few wide receivers have proven to be “quarterback-proof” in the way Justin Jefferson is. He is one of the best route runners in the sport, with incredibly reliable hands, and Minnesota continues to keep him as a focal point of the offense. This is the case whether it is Kirk Cousins, J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz or anyone else throwing him the football. Through the opening six games, the four-time All-Pro has tallied 34 receptions for 528 yards. Jefferson is averaging 88.0 receiving yards per game, and his career average of 95.9 receiving yards through the air ranks first in NFL history.
Los Angeles has a strong overall defense that has held up against the pass to this point. It ranks eighth in passing yards allowed, ninth in net yards per pass attempt and second in passing touchdowns conceded. However, it has been aided by matchups with quarterbacks such as Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa. The Chargers’ defense is respectable but probably not quite to the level the raw numbers indicate. Assuming Carson Wentz gets the start, he will not be afraid to let it fly. Plenty can be said about Wentz as a quarterback, but if anything, his willingness to take chances is clear. This is oftentimes a flaw of his, but it is beneficial to the outlook of Jefferson.
Across his four games with Wentz, Jefferson has pulled in 120+ receiving yards twice and has been targeted 10+ times over each of the past three weeks. He was limited to exactly 79 yards against the Eagles last week, only pulling in five of his 10 targets. Look for him to continue showcasing his skill set and asserting himself as the top wide receiver in football. He is capable of taking any catch for a massive gain, so look for Jefferson to pull in over 79.5 receiving yards for the fourth time this season.
