No. 10 Vanderbilt is hosting No. 15 Missouri for a Week 9 matchup on Saturday afternoon. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET in Nashville, Tennessee.
The Commodores are listed as 2.5-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 51.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction, and best bet for this SEC matchup between Vanderbilt and Missouri.
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt prediction, preview
Missouri Preview
This is a huge game for Missouri. They hung on to beat Auburn in a tough road test last week. Their only loss this season was by three points to a great Alabama team. The Tigers can likely afford only one more loss if they want to get into the College Football Playoff. With games against Texas A&M and Oklahoma still ahead, their backs would be up against the wall if they lost this one. Quarterback Beau Pribula has not been able to get it going in SEC play. In conference play, Pribula has a 3-5 TD-INT ratio and is averaging 195 passing yards per game.
Star running back Ahmad Hardy was carrying this offense, but even he has fallen off in the last two games. Whether it is due to wear and tear or simply the tougher competition, Hardy does not look like the same guy. Hardy had at least 100 rushing yards in each of the first five games of the season, but had just 52 against Alabama and 58 against Auburn. If Hardy can’t get back to his A-game, it will be tough for Missouri to win big SEC games.
Vanderbilt Preview
The Commodores are having a truly special season. Diego Pavia made waves for his exciting play last season, and Vanderbilt gained national attention by beating Alabama. However, Vanderbilt also had some bad performances and ultimately finished 6-6. Vanderbilt significantly improved the roster around Pavia, and they have been much better this season. Just like Missouri, their only loss this season is against Alabama. Pavia’s game has leveled up, but more importantly, Vanderbilt has the players in the trenches on both sides of the ball to compete with anyone. They can run the ball well, pass block effectively for Pavia and stand up against opposing SEC offensive lines with their defensive front. This team is capable of beating anybody and can make the College Football Playoff if they come with their best stuff every week.
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt pick, best bet
My best bet for this game is for Vanderbilt to cover the short 2.5-point spread. Last season, the Commodores were a wild team to watch because you didn’t know what you were going to get any given week. Diego Pavia would make some incredible plays and some awful ones. They could beat Alabama, but they could also lose to Georgia State. This season, they are consistently churning out great performances. In the loss to Alabama, Vanderbilt played tough but turned the ball over too many times. Every other game this season, Vanderbilt has significantly outplayed their opponent.
The Commodores should move the ball efficiently against Missouri. The Vanderbilt offense ranks second in the nation in success rate and fifth in EPA/drive. Missouri will need to score points to keep up with them. The Missouri offense has only been good when Ahmad Hardy is playing at a high level. Vanderbilt ranks 21st in the country in defensive EPA/rush and should slow Hardy down. The only way to beat Vanderbilt is by pushing it down the field, something Beau Pribula has not been able to do this season. Vanderbilt has the edge on both sides of the ball, and that should lead to a win and a cover.
