The Pacers are hosting the Thunder on Thursday for a rematch of the 2024-25 NBA Finals.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Oklahoma City is favored by 7.5 points and this game carries a total of 232.5 points. Below, I’ll break down this matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Pacers vs. Thunder preview, prediction
After defeating the Pacers in seven games in the NBA Finals in June, the Thunder raised their championship banner this past Tuesday night and began their quest for their second straight championship with a double-overtime win over the new look Rockets led by Kevin Durant. Jalen Williams (wrist) missed this season opener and will remain out Thursday. Not only will Oklahoma City be without the All-Star, but Alex Caruso (concussion) is out and both Lu Dort (ankle) and Cason Wallace (knee) are questionable after suffering injuries against Houston.
Losing Caruso is a big loss for the Thunder’s defense and things will become even more challenging on that side of the ball if either Dort or Wallace are also inactive. Nonetheless, Oklahoma City is a deep team that is used to playing without key pieces and role players like Aaron Wiggins and Ajay Mitchell should step up with the Thunder understaffed. More importantly, reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren will take on bigger roles with Williams sidelined and, like we saw Tuesday, Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren should rise to the occasion. In the victory over Houston, Gilgeous-Alexander posted 35 points, five assists and five rebounds, while Holmgren finished with 28 points and seven rebounds.
Tuesday was the fifth time over the last two seasons that Oklahoma City has had Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren available, but Williams unavailable, and the Thunder haven’t missed a beat in these games with a 5-0 record. In these contests, the club is averaging 124.3 PPG and they are limiting their opponents to 110.4 PPG. As you can see, Oklahoma City is still an elite team despite missing one of their top players in Williams, and while the Pacers are in a similar situation, the same can’t be said about this Indiana team club that will be without Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles).
After a magical run to Game 7 of the NBA Finals, Haliburton tore his Achilles in the first half of that contest and the Pacers weren’t able to overcome losing their best player, as the Thunder defeated Indiana by 12 points to win the NBA title. Haliburton has already been ruled for the season by the Pacers, and with the star guard missing, Indiana is likely to be a lottery team after winning the Eastern Conference last season, which is a testament to Haliburton’s impact. With him inactive last season, the Pacers were just 4-5 and they averaged 118.4 PPG and allowed 122.1 PPG.
To make matters worse, Indiana didn’t make any notable additions this offseason, and starting center Myles Turner walked in free agency to join the rivaled Bucks, leaving the Pacers with the fragile Isaiah Jackson as the team’s starting center. Furthermore, TJ McConnell (hamstring) will be out tonight, which is a big loss in the backcourt, as the savvy veteran guard always steps up when Haliburton is unavailable. Andrew Nembhard and Bennedict Mathurin will handle huge workloads as the Pacers’ main guards, and Pascal Siakam will be asked to take on much more work as a scorer. The veteran is a great, versatile forward, but Siakam providing enough offense to make Indiana a competitive team at this point of his career is just unrealistic.
Pacers vs. Thunder pick, best bet
Tonight, both the Pacers and Thunder will look very different from when they just faced each other in the NBA Finals, but the losses for Indiana are far more significant than for Oklahoma City, and the Thunder should be able to secure an easy win.
Oklahoma City being only a 7.5-point favorite for this matchup is puzzling and the Thunder should have no trouble covering this spread. Last season, Oklahoma City was a league-best 64-38-4 ATS.
