The Los Angeles Chargers opened the season as if possessed by the ’80s Miami Dolphins, with Dan Marino slinging the rock all around the field to Mark Clayton and Mark Duper. Los Angeles posted impressive wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos, but then injuries struck — especially to the offensive line — and the Chargers struggled mightily against the New York Giants and Washington Commanders. Coincidentally, the Chargers got back to winning ways with a victory in Miami. Last week, Justin Herbert threw a whopping 55 times in a 38-24 loss to Indianapolis. The Chargers are now third in pass play percentage at 64.91%.
The Minnesota Vikings have also dealt with injuries to the offensive line, defense, running back and quarterback positions. J.J. McCarthy was anointed to be the savior of this Vikings drakkar, but played poorly at best until getting injured. Minnesota has started Carson Wentz for the last four games, and the veteran QB is expected to start in Week 8 as well. Minnesota has alternated wins and losses this season and sits at 3-3, occupying the cellar in the NFC North.
While Los Angeles is third in pass play percentage, Minnesota is surprisingly ninth at 59.77%. The Chargers are 15th in EPA per dropback, though, while the Vikings are 23rd. Los Angeles has thrown 13 touchdowns to six interceptions, while Minnesota has thrown eight touchdowns to seven interceptions. Minnesota has allowed the fourth-most sacks (23) in the league, while L.A. is right behind in sixth (21).
On the ground, the Chargers have been one of the best units in the league, posting the seventh-best EPA per carry. Los Angeles is averaging 4.9 yards per carry but has only scored two rushing touchdowns. The Vikings, meanwhile, are 28th in EPA per carry and average 4.4 yards per carry with five rushing touchdowns.
Defensively, the Chargers have been getting gashed on the ground, allowing 5.1 yards per carry (fifth-most), 10 rushing touchdowns (second-most), and the second-highest EPA per carry. The Vikings have allowed the 10th-highest EPA per carry, but surrender just 4.2 yards per carry while ceding only four rushing TDs.
Through the air, Los Angeles has allowed the 14th-highest EPA per dropback. They’ve allowed only seven passing touchdowns (tied for the second-fewest) and intercepted six passes (tied for the eighth-most). Their 17 sacks rank 12th in the league.
The strength of the Vikings’ defense has been against the pass, posting the second-best EPA per dropback. The unit has allowed just eight touchdowns, but with only two interceptions and 16 sacks. Their completion percentage is 67.7% (11th-highest). That said, their pressure rate is the third-highest. This should be a strength-on-strength matchup.
Weird things tend to happen on Thursday Night Football, so expect the unexpected.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (MIN @LAC)
Captain’s Picks
Carson Wentz ($13,500 CP): Outside of his first start of the season — in which he attempted only 20 passes in positive game script — Wentz has attempted 46, 34, and 42 passes. He’s also rushed a total of 11 times for 57 yards. Kevin O’Connell has tailored the offense to his strengths and is letting him do his thing. Wentz has a high of 26.2 FPTS on the season and could’ve had another last week — when his 313 yards were dampened by two interceptions. Strictly looking at fantasy, Wentz’s volume should be strong.
UTIL Plays
Jordan Mason ($12,900): I do think the Vikings put up some points in this one, so I want a piece of it all. Aaron Jones is sidelined due to injury, so Mason will get the bulk of the carries. Last week, he garnered 77% of the snaps. Now, he’s been mired in the 15-carry range all season and isn’t a big contributor in the passing game, but he has a favorable matchup against the Chargers on the ground.
Justin Herbert ($15,600): The Vikings’ pass defense is one of the best in the league, and their defensive line puts a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, blitzing at the second-highest rate. The Chargers’ offensive line has struggled with pressure, and I think Herbert could be in for a long day. That said, I think the Vikings put up some points while the Chargers’ run game struggles. The onus of the Chargers’ offense will once again be put on the shoulders of Herbert. Against the blitz this season, Herbert ranks fourth in the NFL with an 87.4 passing grade. The Vikings’ pass defense applies pressure, but hasn’t racked up a ton of sacks, and allows a high completion percentage.
Oronde Gadsden II ($8,700): Gadsden has dominated the snaps at tight end for the Chargers the last two weeks against the Dolphins and Colts, respectively. He’s garnered eight and nine targets, catching seven in each game and racking up 68 yards, then 164 with a touchdown. Those were good for 12.8 and 32.4 FPTS, respectively. He should be heavily involved in this one as well.
Fades
Justin Jefferson ($17,700): Jefferson is one of the best receivers in the game. And he can go off on any given night. That said, he’s the most expensive player on the slate, and he’s put up over 20 FPTS just twice this season. I think Mason will do well in this one, so that story knocks some of the shine off Jefferson.
THE OUTCOME
Well, Minnesota has alternated wins and losses all season, coming off a defeat in Week 7 — so you know what that means. I kid, I kid. I can’t believe I’m going to write this, but I think Wentz outscores Herbert in this one.
Final Score: Vikings 31, Chargers 20
