All but two teams have made their debuts in the 2025-26 NBA regular season after last night’s thrilling 12-game slate. Arguably, though, the league saved the best for last.
The two teams who will play for the first time tonight are the teams that came the closest to dethroning the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Indiana Pacers and the Denver Nuggets. While Indiana will take on Oklahoma City in an NBA Finals rematch, the Nuggets will travel for a clash against the Golden State Warriors at 10:10 p.m. ET as Nikola Jokić strives to reclaim the MVP award from the Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The Warriors are 2.5-point favorites against Denver at DraftKings Sportsbook (-130 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 233.5. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are +110 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this highly-anticipated clash and offer a prediction.
Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors preview, prediction
Golden State’s status as the favorite makes sense, given its dominant display in its season opener against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Warriors withstood a 43-point performance from Luka Dončić in a 119-109 victory, and their new-look starting lineup looked great: Jimmy Butler III had 31 points, Stephen Curry had 23, and the unit outscored the Lakers by 27.9 points per 100 possessions in the 15 minutes that it took the court together. Golden State didn’t do much during the offseason, but its biggest (and most surprising) move was re-signing disgruntled former lottery pick Jonathan Kuminga and then putting him in the opening day starting lineup.
In a sharp contract to the Warriors’ passive approach, Denver was ultra-aggressive in the offseason after firing former General Manager Calvin Booth towards the end of the regular season. The Nuggets shipped off former lottery pick Michael Porter Jr., bringing in an oversized shooter with better defense in the Brooklyn Nets’ Cameron Johnson, brought back a critical piece of their 2023 title team in guard Bruce Brown Jr., and traded for Jonas Valančiūnas to keep the team afloat when Jokić sits. Their newfound depth paid dividends in the preseason, when they went 3-2.
Nuggets at Warriors pick, best bet
All of the other primary contenders for this season’s MVP award had great starts to the season: Gilgeous-Alexander had 35 points, five rebounds, five assists, two steals, and two blocks; Dončić had 43 points, 12 boards, and nine assists; Giannis Antetokounmpo had 37 points, 14 rebounds, and five assists; Anthony Edwards had 41 points; and Victor Wembanyama had 40 points, 15 rebounds, and three blocks. With each of those players out of action tonight except for Gilgeous-Alexander, tonight is Jokić’s night to make a statement, and he certainly had a few of those last season, including an ultra-efficient 33-point, 12-rebound, nine-assist effort the last time he played at the Chase Center.
That was arguably the worse of his two games against Golden State last season; when the two teams faced off in Denver, he recorded 38 points, 10 boards, six assists, and five steals, his best steals output of the season. Despite having the league’s best defense after trading for Butler, the Warriors were unable to do much to slow down Jokić at all, which is a common thread; no team has really managed to do so on a consistent basis. Golden State’s swarming, switch-heavy style doesn’t mean much when Jokić can whip unexpected passes out of nowhere and finish at an elite clip from all three levels.
The new-look Warriors won the April matchup, 118-104, despite Jokić’s brilliance and solid shooting nights from Porter and Christian Braun, in part because the Nuggets were missing Jamal Murray and got just 17 points from players outside their top four. Now, this Denver team is deeper: Tim Hardaway Jr. has made two or more threes per game in each of his past eight seasons, Valančiūnas has a higher career rebounding percentage than even Jokić, and Brown was the sixth man for the title-winning squad. Golden State allowed the fourth-fewest assists per game after adding Butler, but he should be able to dish out dimes now that he plays with Hardaway and Johnson, who were both among the league’s best cutters last season, albeit on limited volume. The Warriors also benefited from its 17th-best three-point shooting night and forced its most turnovers of the season, while the Nuggets had their most giveaways. Lots of luck was involved in Golden State’s eventual victory.
The key for both teams tonight will be finding an efficient shot diet. Last season, the Warriors allowed the fewest field goal attempts in the restricted area and forced among the most from floater range and from the midrange, while the Nuggets allowed an above-average number of shots at the rim and from the corners. That should benefit Denver, which averaged the most shots per game in the restricted area and among the fewest from above the break. The Nuggets also hit at the second-highest rate from the corners, and their low volume should only go up after the addition of Johnson, who averaged the 1.6 corner attempts per game in the league and canned them at a 43.0% clip. Golden State allowed the third-highest percentage from the corners last season.
