Below you can find all my picks for College Football Week 9 with a quick handicap on the game. The article will be updated throughout the week as bets are added. Our team at DK Network will have breakdowns on nearly every game on the board, so stayed locked in at the website for betting analysis on any college football game you may be interested in.
Oklahoma/Alabama ML Parlay (-123) 1.5-units: The Sooners bounced back from the tough loss to Texas with a much stronger performance against South Carolina last week. Now John Mateer is another week healthier, and returns home to face Ole Miss off its first loss of the season. The Sooners should be able to move the ball against the Rebels and score some points, like we saw Georgia do last week. But Ole Miss hasn’t seen a defense like Oklahoma this season, and now has to go on the road in consecutive weeks against strong competition. I think this is where we see the Ole Miss offense take a step back. Alabama has to go on the road after a big home win over Tennessee, but the Tide are simply rolling right now. I don’t expect much resistance from a soft South Carolina defense.
Arkansas ML (-115) 1-unit: The Hogs opened as home underdogs in this one, but were quickly bet to favorites early in the week. Auburn’s offense has major issues, which (unfortunately for us Auburn bettors last week) we saw come to light on Saturday night against Missouri. Auburn missed three field goals in a game it eventually lost at home in double overtime, and the quarterback play was not good by Jackson Arnold. Now the Tigers are considering playing multiple quarterbacks on the road at Arkansas. Since getting embarrassed by Notre Dame and making the coaching change, the Razorbacks have been extremely competitive in a pair of games against strong opponents — a 34-31 loss at Tennessee and a 45-42 loss to Texas A&M. The defense might allow Auburn to show some improvement, but not enough to keep up with what Arkansas is capable of doing on offense.
Vanderbilt ML (-140) 1.5-units: Vandy just continues to roll, picking up a massive home win over LSU last week. With the College Football Playoff in view, this team can’t afford a flat spot after a big win. The Commodores are short home favorites once again, and catch Missouri in a pretty difficult spot. The Tigers got off to a 5-0 start against far inferior competitive at home, but their schedule has since picked up. They lost at home to Alabama two weeks ago, and then last week played their first road game of the season, which was the double overtime loss I mentioned at Auburn. Now Mizzou goes on the road for the second consecutive game, after winning a game that they got pretty fortunate to. This Vandy team is much tougher than Auburn, and I expect them to pull out another win.
Iowa State ML (-142) 2-units: I’ve been fading BYU week after week, and obviously winding up a loser. Now, I’m back to do it again as my favorite play of the week. This sets up as about as strong of a spot for Iowa State as you could imagine, and as poor a spot for BYU as you can imagine. The Cyclones are off consecutive one-score road losses to Cincinnati and Colorado, but now return home following their bye week. Meanwhile, BYU is fortunate to be undefeated, and are off a pair of pretty emotional victories — a road win at Arizona in which they trailed by double digits late, and then a three-point win in the Holy War against their in-state rival. The Cougars have to go on the road to face a good team that’s had two weeks to prepare of a pair of losses … Iowa State will be ready for this game.
Washington -4 (-112) 1-unit: The Huskies had their 22-game home winning streak snapped by Ohio State last month, but went on to get a comeback road win at Maryland, and then a 19-point home win over Rutgers on a Friday night. Washington went on the road last week, and the offense struggled against Michigan’s defense, in what was a revenge spot for the Wolverines. Illinois is off getting beat up by Ohio State as well, followed by the bye week. So the Illini should be well prepared for this game, and are 2-1 SU/ATS on the road this season. This isn’t as much of a fade spot of Illinois as it is wanting to back the Huskies off a loss and returning home. I expect Washington to make some explosive plays downfield that will be tough for Illinois to keep up with in a tough road atmosphere.
Mississippi State +7.5 (-120) 1.5-units: If you feel this is a buy-low spot on Texas then have at it, but the Longhorns are simply fade or pass for me at this point. I’m kicking myself for not backing Kentucky last week, as the Longhorns had to follow up the Oklahoma win by going on the road to face a team they’d be looking right past. Texas barely won the game in overtime, and now has to go on the road again to Starkville. The win in Lexington was Texas’ first road win of the season, but the failed cover keepts the Horns at 0-3 ATS in true road games on the year. Mississippi State remains winless in the SEC, but has been competitive. The Bulldogs were blown out by Texas A&M, but lost to Tennessee by seven and Florida by two, covering both games. Miss State also has an outright victory as a home underdog in non-conference play over Arizona State. The home crowd will be hyped to host Texas, and the Horns will be playing their fourth consecutive game away from home. I bought the hook here to the key number of 7.5 and will trust the home dogs to keep this one close.
Michigan State +14.5 (-110) 1-unit: I’m not a huge Michigan State fan, but if we’re talking more than two touchdowns for a home underdog facing Michigan then you have my attention. I faded the Wolverines at Oklahoma and USC, and while Sparty is nowhere near that class, this is still an in-state rivalry game that won’t come easy. Michigan is 1-2 ATS on the road this season, while MSU is 3-0 ATS as an underdog. This will be Sparty’s first time this season as the home dog, and they should get a nice boost on Saturday night for a big nationally televised game. I think Aidan Chiles and the offense can give Michigan enough problems to keep up in this one, while the Wolverines’ offensive struggles on the road may continue.
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