New Mexico State is hosting Missouri State on Wednesday night of Week 9. The game will take place at 9:00 p.m. ET in Las Cruces, New Mexico.
The Bears are 1.5-point road favorites in this game on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 50.5 points. This is a preview, prediction and pick for the Missouri State vs. New Mexico State C-USA conference matchup.
Missouri State vs. New Mexico State prediction, preview
Missouri State Preview
This is Missouri State’s first season at the FBS level. After many years of FCS success, the Bears have taken a step up to join Conference USA. It has been a decent start to the season for the Bears, sitting at 3-3 on the season with two of those losses coming to higher-level Power Five programs. Missouri State is tough on the defensive side of the ball. In the Bears’ first-ever FBS-on-FBS game, they gave up 73 points to USC, one of the best offenses in America. That game is really hurting their season-long defensive numbers, but since Week 1, they are giving up just 21 points per game. Against C-USA opponents, they stack up well physically and are a well-coached group. One issue hurting the team has been the absence of senior quarterback Jacob Clark. Freshman Deuce Bailey has played well in Clark’s stead, but this team can’t hit the same ceiling offensively with Clark on the sideline. He is questionable for this game, and if he does play, there will be some rust to shake off.
New Mexico State Preview
New Mexico State also sits at 3-3 coming into this game, although the quality of the losses is not nearly on the same level. The Aggies are coming off a loss to Liberty, with their lone conference win this season coming against Sam Houston, arguably the worst team in the FBS. New Mexico State quarterback Logan Fife has really struggled so far this season. He has a completion percentage of 56.5%, ranking 107th out of 114 qualified FBS quarterbacks. Fife also has an 8-4 TD-INT ratio on the season, with not much of a rushing threat to counteract the throwing struggles. It could be a tough battle for New Mexico State to win games unless its quarterback can get back on track.
Missouri State vs. New Mexico State pick, best bet
My best bet for this game is the under 50.5. The Missouri State offense ranks 105th in the nation in success rate and 81st in EPA/drive. The New Mexico State offense ranks 129th in success rate and 97th in EPA/drive. These two offenses both really struggle to sustain drives and to find the end zone when they do put a good drive together. The New Mexico State offense does not pose much of a threat, and with the uncertainty around the Missouri State passing game, they can’t be trusted to move the ball either. This should be a defensive battle, with both teams looking to play the field position game. That should lead to this game staying under the listed total of 50.5 points.
