In the last 30 seasons, only seven teams have lost in the conference finals in back-to-back seasons. Of the first six, the only one that managed to make the Finals in the following season was the 1999-2000 Indiana Pacers, who fell to the Los Angeles Lakers in the first title of the Lakers’ three-peat. Only one other team even managed to make the conference finals in the seasons following their back-to-back defeats: the 2007-2008 Detroit Pistons, who lost to the Boston Celtics.
That’s the kind of history that the Minnesota Timberwolves are hoping to overturn this season. Minnesota will open its season tonight with a 10:10 p.m. ET clash against the Portland Trail Blazers at the Moda Center in Oregon’s largest city.
The Timberwolves are 4.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-185 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 221.5. Portland is +154 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this Western Conference clash and offer a prediction.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers preview, prediction
While the rest of the Western Conference got better, Minnesota more or less stood pat and, as a result, have just the fourth-best odds to reach the Western Conference Finals. The Timberwolves’ main transactions were re-signing former Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid to a five-year, $125 million contract and Julius Randle to a three-year, $100 million deal, but they couldn’t afford to bring back Nickeil Alexander-Walker and couldn’t otherwise upgrade the rotation. If Minnesota wants to get back to the conference finals, it’ll need Anthony Edwards to take yet another leap and Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert to maintain their levels of play.
The loudest move that the Trail Blazers made won’t affect their roster this season: they brought back franchise legend Damian Lillard on a three-year, $42 million contract after he was surprisingly waived by the Milwaukee Bucks, but he’ll likely miss the entire season as he recovers from the torn Achilles tendon that he suffered in the Bucks’ first round defeat to the Indiana Pacers. Portland also bought out Deandre Ayton, drafted Chinese project Yang Hansen with the 16th overall pick, traded Anfernee Simons to the Boston Celtics for Jrue Holiday, and re-signed Shaedon Sharpe and Toumani Camara to extensions. In general, neither team has changed too much from last season, when they split the season series.
Timberwolves at Trail Blazers pick, best bet
The main question is just how real the Trail Blazers’ hot second half of the 2024-25 season was. In the first 41 games of the season, Portland went just 13-28 and posted the league’s third-worst defensive rating. In the last 41 games, it went 23-18 and had the third-best defensive rating. Across that span, several Trail Blazers players made leaps: Camara jumped from 9.8 points and 1.4 steals per game on 33.7% three-point shooting to 12.9 points, 1.6 steals, and 41.1% from deep, Deni Avdija went from a 14.0-6.3-3.3 line to a 20.2-8.3-4.6 one, and Donovan Clingan went from 6.5 rebounds per game to 9.1. Portland played a fairly friendly schedule against teams who weren’t playing for much by the end of the season, but Avdija’s star turn looks pretty sustainable, given his age and raw tools. Camara’s defense absolutely is, though expecting him to maintain 42.6% accuracy on wide open threes when he hit just 28.3% of such tries in 2023-24 might not be.
Given the age of the Trail Blazers’ roster, I’m considering their late-season charge to be mostly legitimate. It’s only natural for the 25-year-old Camara, 24-year-old Avdija, and 21-year-old Clingan to take a step forward, and Holiday and Lillard should provide veteran leadership. It’s fair to wonder whether Holiday, who posted the fifth-worst three-point percentage, second-fewest combined steals/blocks, and second-worst on-off plus-minus of his 16-season career, can still be a regular starting point guard in his age-35 season. Holiday didn’t do a great job in his 27 partial possessions against Edwards last season, as the Timberwolves star scored 12 points on four-for-six shooting, but Camara held Edwards to just five-for-14 from the field in 74.5 partial possessions.
If Camara can somewhat limit Edwards, who’s questionable for tonight’s contest with back spasms, Minnesota’s chances hinge on the rest of the team. Conley managed just 8.2 points per game and made only 38.0% of his two-point tries last season, grading out as a negative on offense for the first time since his rookie season, and Gobert slipped defensively, finishing outside the top seven in Defensive Player of the Year voting for just the third time in his career. Beyond Edwards, the second-most important Timberwolves player is Randle, who averaged 21.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game in easily the best playoff run of his career. Randle scored 20 or more points twice in three games against Portland last season, and he made up for shooting just one-for-four when guarded by Jerami Grant by being effective against Camara. Donte DiVincenzo, who will start at point guard tonight, could also be key against a team that held opponents to the second-worst three point percentage across the second half of the season.
Both teams were very stingy in the paint: across the entire season, the Trail Blazers allowed the third-lowest percentage within five feet, and Minnesota conceded the sixth-lowest. On the flip side, both teams were exploitable in the midrange, allowing the two highest percentages in that zone. Portland could make up some points on short jumpers, given that it attempted one more middie per game than the Timberwolves while converting at a clip 3.3 percentage points higher last season, but that won’t be enough to make up for the Timberwolves’ better shooting in the restricted area, the floater range, and on corner threes. I’ll take Minnesota in a narrow defensive affair.
