The 2025-26 NBA season begins Tuesday and for the first game of the season, the defending champion Thunder are hosting the Rockets. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Oklahoma City is favored by 6.5 points and this game carries a total of 227.5 points.
Below, I dive into three of my favorite player prop bets for Tuesday’s matchup between the Thunder and Rockets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Thunder vs. Rockets Player Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O 6.5 Assists (-115)
The Thunder begin their quest for their second straight championship without Jalen Williams (wrist) tonight, putting even more work on the plate of Gilgeous-Alexander, especially as a playmaker. In the nine games Gilgeous-Alexander played without Williams last season, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 7.6 assists per game, which is an upgrade from the 6.4 assists per game he averaged for the season. The reigning MVP exceeded 6.5 assists in six of those nine games with Williams inactive and with the All-Star off the floor last season, Gilgeous-Alexander’s assist rate increased 5.6 percentage points to 36%.
The Rockets aren’t an ideal matchup after they ranked fifth in defensive rating last season, but Gilgeous-Alexander will be competing on his home floor and the Thunder carry a 117.5-point implied team total on DraftKings Sportsbook, which is the largest of the four teams in action Tuesday. Gilgeous-Alexander should begin his season with a huge outing and he is a fantastic bet for over 6.5 assists.
Chet Holmgren O 24.5 Points + Rebounds (-104)
With Williams out, Holmgren becomes the Thunder’s No. 2 option behind Gilgeous-Alexander and this 24.5 PR line is simply too low for this situation. Holmgren made four starts without Williams last season and he averaged 17.3 points and 9.5 rebounds per game in those contests, including two double-doubles.
The Rockets are running out a large lineup to start the season, with Alperen Sengun at power forward and Steven Adams at center. While Houston will likely be strong defensively with this lineup, Holmgren should see huge minutes against this lengthy Houston team as Oklahoma City’s main big man and with the heavy volume, he has the potential to easily clear 24.5 PR.
Alperen Sengun U 18.5 Points (-118)
For many reasons, Sengun is a strong bet for under 18.5 points Tuesday. First off, while Jalen Green is no longer with the Rockets, the player they acquired for Green is Kevin Durant, who is even more of a high-usage player than Green. Last season, Durant handled a 28.3% usage rate with the Suns, whereas Green handled a 26.7% usage rate with Houston. Playing alongside Durant naturally is going to decrease Sengun’s usage this season and albeit in the preseason, Sengun only handled a 19.5% usage rate during those exhibitions, which is a huge drop from the 25.9% rate he averaged last season.
In addition to Sengun likely losing usage to Durant, Sengun is in a brutal spot Tuesday. The big man is facing a Thunder defense that led the NBA in rating last season and that gave up the fewest points in the paint in the league. Sengun had 81% of his points come in the painted area last season and he should fall short of 18.5 points Tuesday, possibly by a comfortable margin.
