Week 7 of the NFL season will conclude with another Monday Night Football doubleheader. Following the conclusion of the Lions vs. Buccaneers, the Seattle Seahawks will host the Houston Texans in the late window. Seattle enters with a 4-2 record on the season, while Houston has dropped to 2-3. This is an important measuring-stick matchup for both teams, with each entering the season with playoff aspirations.
Looking at the odds for the matchup, the Seahawks enter as 3-point favorites and hold -166 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Texans hold +140 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at O/U 41.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 7 Monday Night Football Texans vs. Seahawks matchup.
Texans at Seahawks Best Prop Bets
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 86.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
There may not be a wide receiver in football playing at the level of Jaxon Smith-Njigba to start the season. He leads the entire NFL with 696 receiving yards, even with many players having played one more game due to this being a Monday Night matchup. He has pulled in 42 of his 56 targets, is averaging 116.0 yards per game, and has added three touchdowns this year. Smith-Njigba has tallied over 86.5 receiving yards in five of the six games already this year. He has tallied at least 79 yards in every game this season and recorded 100+ yards through the air in four of the six games. Smith-Njigba is coming off his best performance of the season with eight receptions for 162 yards and a touchdown last week.
Looking at tonight’s matchup, Houston has been an interesting defense thus far this season. They are riding high coming off back-to-back games in which they held opponents to 207 total yards or fewer and just 10 combined points. But it also is worth noting these were matchups against the Cam Ward-led Titans and Cooper Rush-led Ravens. Houston ranks fifth in passing yards allowed, has given up the fewest passing touchdowns, and is second in the NFL in EPA per pass play. But these metrics are at least aided by a friendly schedule to this point. Puka Nacua shredded the Texans for 130 yards and a touchdown in the opening week as evidence it can be done.
Sam Darnold’s arrival has changed the Seahawks’ attack, and he has proven ready to let it fly. Smith-Njigba has received nine or more targets in four of the six games and also has registered a reception of 36+ yards in all six games. The Houston front seven will have some success generating pressure, but count on Darnold continuing to air it out at a high rate and giving Smith-Njigba chances to make plays. Expect the Texans’ defensive metrics to slip as the season progresses and for the Seahawks’ star pass catcher to put a dent in this. The volume of targets he is currently receiving is too much to overlook, and count on him recording over 86.5 receiving yards for the sixth time already this season.
C.J. Stroud Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-108)
It has been a rapid fall from grace for C.J. Stroud after his incredibly impressive rookie season. After winning the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year and playing his way into the conversation for one of the best quarterbacks in football, he took a bit of a step back last year and has struggled a bit out of the gates this season. Stroud has completed 70.8% of his pass attempts for 1,076 yards, eight touchdowns, and three interceptions while adding 122 rushing yards on the ground.
Houston will need Stroud to step up in tonight’s game based on how Seattle’s defense matches up. The Seahawks rank third in rushing yards allowed, second in net yards per rush attempt, second in EPA per rush play, and have allowed the second fewest rushing touchdowns. Luckily, this has led to quarterbacks being used at a high rate. All six quarterbacks the Seahawks have faced this year have attempted over 32.5 passes. This includes Trevor Lawrence (42), Baker Mayfield (33), Kyler Murray (41), Spencer Rattler (39), Aaron Rodgers (33), and Brock Purdy (35).
Stroud has only surpassed this passing attempts total in one of the five games this season. But the 24-year-old was averaging 33.3 passing attempts per game just two seasons ago. The Texans have not gotten reliable production from their running back ground anyway, and this matchup surely will not help with this. Houston is inching closer to full health at the wide receiver and offensive line spots, which helps Stroud’s outlook. Expect the game script to dictate him airing out the ball frequently in this matchup due to the Seahawks’ strong defense and the Texans being an underdog. Count on Houston being willing to live with how far Stroud can take him and for him to throw the ball at least 33 times tonight.
Zach Charbonnet Under 37.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Speaking of struggling running back production, the Seahawks enter this matchup ranking 20th in rushing yards tallied and 29th in yards per rush attempt. Kenneth Walker III headlines the rushing attack with 78 rush attempts for 364 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Zach Charbonnet has tallied 60 carries so far this year, which he has turned into 156 yards and three scores. Charbonnet has not tallied more than 47 rushing yards in a game this season and has been held to under 37.5 rushing yards in three of the five games he has been active for.
The Texans’ defense is strong in the trenches and currently ranks seventh in rushing yards allowed and eighth in yards per rush attempt. Charbonnet is averaging just 2.6 yards per carry and has just one run of over 10 yards on the season. He is mostly used in short yardage and goal line situations, with Walker III doing most of the damage in the middle of the field.
Don’t expect either running back to have a ton of success tonight. Houston limited Derrick Henry to just 33 yards on the ground in the previous game, and Charbonnet will not see near the same level of opportunities with the ball. Expect Walker III to be the Seahawks running back to have a chance to create some production. Expect Charbonnet’s level of opportunity to be limited and for him to struggle to generate production in these chances. Count on him being held below 37.5 rushing yards for the fourth time this season and for most of the focus to be on Seattle’s passing game.
