Entering tonight’s Monday Night Football clash against the Houston Texans, the Seattle Seahawks trail the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers by half a game each in what has so far proven to be the NFL’s most competitive division. Seattle is chasing its first division title since 2020 with a new quarterback, Sam Darnold, at the helm.
While Darnold and wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba have rightfully earned the lion’s share of the praise for the Seahawks’ stellar start to the season, their success wouldn’t be possible without a solid season from running back Kenneth Walker III. Walker has established himself as the preferred back in his partnership with Zach Charbonnet.
Seattle is a three-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 41.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Walker.
Best Kenneth Walker III Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Kenneth Walker III O12.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)
Walker has recorded fewer than 12 rushing attempts in each of the last two games, but there’s a good reason for both. In the Week 5 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Buccaneers’ offense was so excellent in the second half that Darnold had to throw to keep pace, and in the Week 6 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, the score was lopsided enough that Charbonnet got a few garbage time attempts to ultimately lead the team in carries.
It’s not like Charbonnet took advantage of the additional opportunities; he finished with 12 carries for 24 yards, and he’s been, by Pro Football Focus’ standards, the 19th-worst of 53 qualified running backs, while Walker has been the best. Charbonnet also ranks fourth-to-last in rushing yards over expectation per attempt and dead last in rush yards per attempt overall. It would be malpractice for Klint Kubiak to continue handing the ball off to the two ball-carriers at the same rate, and I have too much respect for Kubiak to believe that he would do that.
Plus, I expect the Seahawks to operate a fairly run-heavy scheme tonight against a strong Texans secondary. This season, Houston has faced the fewest passing attempts and conceded the second-fewest passing yards while also posting the fifth-lowest net yards per attempt figure. It is the only team in the NFL that has recorded more interceptions than it has allowed touchdown passes, picking off five passes while conceding a league-low three scores. After rough early-season performances, both Kamari Lassiter and Derek Stingley Jr. have bounced back with strong efforts in the past few weeks, and they should be able to stifle Smith-Njigba enough for Kubiak to find handoffs to Walker appealing.
Kenneth Walker III Longest Rush O13.5 Yards (-115)
With enough opportunities, I also like Walker to break off a long run, even though he only had a longest carry of six yards in Seattle’s win over the Jaguars. The Michigan State product has been solid after contact, ranking 20th among 43 qualified ball-carriers in yards after contact per attempt and 14th in rushing attempts per broken tackle. He’s also ranked near the top of the league in yards per carry over expectation, gaining 0.47 more yards per carry than expected. His longest carry has been longer than 14 yards in three of his six games, tying with Jonathan Taylor and De’Von Achane for a league-leading five 20-plus-yard runs.
The Texans have also had a solid rushing defense, allowing the fewest yards on the ninth-worst efficiency, but they’ve allowed three 20-plus-yard carries in five games, so it’s not entirely impossible to break off a long one against them. Houston also ranks just 15th in expected points added by the rush defense, indicating that its stellar counting stats are more a matter of league-low volume than efficiency. The Texans also get pressure at a below-average rate, so Walker could get a few more yards before contact than he’s used to, and they have missed tackles at an above-average rate, grading out as the league’s fourth-worst tackling team. Walker likes outside runs, which means he could get a one-on-one in open space against Stingley, who’s missed two tackles in each of his last two games.
