The Detroit Lions will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first matchup of tonight’s NFL Week 7 Monday Night doubleheader. Quarterback Baker Mayfield and company will be looking to build on their impressive 5-1 start to the season. Mayfield has continued to produce like one of the best quarterbacks in football, even while his wide receiver group has battled injuries all year. This remains the case tonight, with Chris Godwin remaining sidelined and both Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka listed as questionable.
Looking at the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, the Lions enter as 5.5-point favorites and hold -270 odds on the moneyline. The Buccaneers hold +220 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at 54.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action outside of backing a side or total. This article will look at my top Baker Mayfield prop bets ahead of tonight’s Week 7 Monday Night Football matchup.
Best Baker Mayfield Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Baker Mayfield 250+ Passing Yards (-133)
Through the opening six games, Baker Mayfield is averaging 256.5 passing yards per game and has thrown for over 250 yards in three consecutive games entering this matchup. If you take away the 167-yard passing performance in the season opener, the former number one overall pick would be averaging 274.4 passing yards per contest. His full passing totals have been 167, 215, 233, 289, 379, and 256.
He will face off with a Detroit defense that has been vulnerable against the pass this year. They rank 20th in points allowed, 17th in passing yards allowed, 17th in yards per pass attempt, and 28th in passing touchdowns conceded. Patrick Mahomes most recently threw for 257 yards and three touchdowns against them, and even Jake Browning tallied 251 yards through the air in the game before. Tampa Bay is a pass-oriented team, and this will continue to be the case — especially while Bucky Irving is sidelined with his shoulder and foot injuries.
The injury concerns to the wide receiver spots are legitimate, but this has not stopped Mayfield to this point. Detroit currently ranks second in the league in scoring at 31.8 points per game, and the Buccaneers are going to need to move the football and put up points if they are to remain competitive. Count on Mayfield taking this responsibility on his shoulders and maintaining his high level of play. He threw for 256 yards last week while leaning on Kameron Johnson as his top wide receiver. Any sort of return from Egbuka or Evans will only help the outlook, and count on Mayfield being ready to air it out for over 251+ yards for the fourth straight week.
Baker Mayfield Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-108)
He will never quite be looked at as a dual-threat quarterback, but Mayfield has employed his legs at a more common rate than many realize. Through the first six games, he has rushed the ball 22 times for 158 yards, an average of 26.3 rushing yards per game. He has taken off on the feet at least twice in every game this year and produced rushing totals of 39, 33, 44, 13, 15, and 14.
Detroit has defended the run well this season, ranking third in EPA per rushing play and 11th in total rushing yards allowed. But they have given up 135 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, with Lamar Jackson being the only true dual-threat quarterback they have faced. They’ve surrendered 35 rushing yards to Jackson, 32 to Mahomes, 31 to Jake Browning, and 27 to Caleb Williams.
Mayfield will not see many designed runs but has no problem escaping the pocket to pick up some yardage and take what the defense gives him. The Lions are a favorite in this matchup, and the high game total suggests plenty of scoring is expected. Count on there to be plenty of pressure for the Buccaneers’ starter to lead the offense, and for it to be necessary for him escape trouble with his legs on occasion. He has tallied at least 13 rushing yards in every game this season, and I’m backing Mayfield to record over 19.5 rushing yards for the fourth time this season.
