The Chiefs had an ugly start to their 2025 season, but they seem to be back on track following a 30-17 victory over the Lions in Week 6. They could build on this win with a home matchup against the Raiders.
Las Vegas is 2-4 with wins against the Patriots in Week 1 and Titans in Week 6. Geno Smith has been a mess in his first season with the club, reaching 10 interceptions already.
Kansas City is a 11.5-point favorite and -900 on the moneyline, while Las Vegas is +600 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 45.5 points.
Here are my favorite player props for this Week 7 NFL game between the Chiefs and Raiders.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Best Prop Bets
Geno Smith over 0.5 interceptions (-221)
It hasn’t been a pretty season for Smith, who leads the NFL with 10 interceptions. While it may not be as bad as 21 interceptions in his rookie season, there’s plenty of time for this to get worse. The Chiefs have a solid pass defense, which could give Smith some major trouble.
Kansas City’s defense has earned the 11th most interceptions this year. Christian Roland-Wallace, Jaylen Watson, Trent McDuffie and Leo Chenal each have one interception this season. Chenal and this trio of cornerbacks could take advantage of Smith at Arrowhead Stadium.
Between Chris Jones pass rushing, the Chiefs’ loud home crowd and Smith being off his game, this could be an easy interception for the Kansas City secondary.
This isn’t great value on its own at -221, so consider parlaying it with other prop bets to increase the return.
Ashton Jeanty over 61.5 rushing yards (-115)
Despite a good pass defense, the Chiefs are mediocre at stopping the run. They allow the 19th fewest rushing yards and 21st fewest rushing touchdowns. That’s good news for the Raiders and Ashton Jeanty.
Smith’s troubles under center are well-documented, so it’s understandable why the team wants to utilize Jeanty more often. The Boise State product was drafted No. 6 overall for a reason, and he’s built up his workload through six weeks.
Jeanty recorded a career-high 23 touches in Week 6’s victory against the Titans, and head coach Pete Carroll wants that to become a normality. With a struggling quarterback and the Chiefs’ solid pass defense, it makes sense for Las Vegas to feed Jeanty often.
His 61.5 rushing yards line is easy to surpass as long as he gets the necessary touches. Despite averaging 3.3 yards per carry last week, Jeanty finished with 75 yards on 23 carries.
Patrick Mahomes over 12.5 yards – longest rush (-125)
Kansas City’s run game hasn’t been impressive this season. Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt team up for what seems like a good duo on paper, but they haven’t performed great. Neither back even leads the team in rushing yards. That title belongs to none other than Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes has done just about everything for the Chiefs’ offense this season. He’s the starting quarterback, of course, and the lead rusher in terms of yards and touchdowns. He’s also comparable to both running backs in terms of carries.
Mahomes will get his chances to run, with him carrying the ball at least four times in every game this year. He’s had a high of 10 carries but typically sits around the 5-6 range. The more often he rushes, the more chances he has to surpass a longest rush of 12.5 yards.
He’s accomplished this in three of six weeks this season with a high of 22 yards. Here are his longest rushes week by week:
- Week 1: 15 yards (six carries)
- Week 2: 22 yards (seven carries)
- Week 3: 4 yards (five carries)
- Week 4: 4 yards (four carries)
- Week 5: 15 yards (six carries)
- Week 6: 11 yards (10 carries)
The over 12.5 longest rush is listed at -125 odds.