The first game of Monday night between the Lions and Buccaneers should be a barn burner. This game? It could be a burner alright; a burner of our eyes. Seattle is dead-last in pass rate at 50.29% while Houston is 22nd at 54.61%. Both teams will likely play conservatively and to their respective defenses, which are both good.
Seattle is second in EPA per carry and limits opposing rushing attacks to 3.3 yards per carry. They have only allowed two rushing touchdowns on the season. The pass defense has allowed the 14th-highest EPA per dropback, but has seen the 11th-most passing attempts and racked up seven interceptions with 20 sacks.
The Houston defense is the opposite of Seattle, in that their pass defense is the dominant aspect, posting the second-best EPA per dropback. They’ve allowed only three passing touchdowns while notching five interceptions. The completion percentage is only 58.8%. The run defense has allowed the 11th-highest EPA per carry but allows only 3.9 yards per carry.
The strength of the Seattle offense is the passing attack, which is posting the fifth-highest EPA per dropback. The rushing attack has the second-lowest EPA per carry and is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry. So it’s strength against strength and weakness against weakness.
Houston has the fifth-highest EPA per carry while averaging 4.4 yards per carry but has scored only three times on the ground. The pass offense has the 13th-highest EPA per dropback with C.J. Stroud completing 70.8% of his passes. Strength on strength again.
DraftKings Sportsbook has SEA -3 over HOU with the total at 41.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $700K Monday Night Showdown [$200K to 1st] (HOU @ SEA)
Captain’s Picks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($17,700 CP): The 56 targets lead the Seahawks by a wide margin. I don’t care about game script, matchup, weather, quarte….Ok, I’m not going to get too crazy but JSN is going to get fed and put up points. I don’t think a ceiling game is in the cards, but I’m not expecting any robust fantasy performances in this one. JSN has failed to hit 20 FPTS only once this season and has gone over 30 FPTS twice.
UTIL Plays
Seahawks DST ($4,000): Houston has one of the worst offensive lines in the league and will likely have difficulty in front of a raucous 12th man. Seattle is fifth in pressure rate while blitzing at the lowest rate. The 20 sacks are the third-most in the NFL while the seven takeaways are tied for the sixth-most. This unit has put up double-digit FPTS in four of six contests.
Woody Marks ($7,000): Marks only put up 2.4 FPTS last week, rushing seven times for 24 yards and receiving only one target. He did out-snap Nick Chubb, 39% to 34%. I’m expecting Marks to be more involved in this one, especially in the passing game. Seattle has allowed the most receptions to running backs this season.
Zach Charbonnet ($6,600): Charbonnet received 60% of the snaps last week while Kenneth Walker III played 35%. He also received six red zone opportunities compared to two for Walker. I do like rostering both backs in this one, as I think Seattle controls this game, but I’m writing up Charbonnet due to the higher touchdown equity.
Fades
Sam Darnold ($10,400): Darnold has been great this season. My story revolves around the Seattle running backs and the defense in this one, which means lower volume for Darnold. In addition, the strength of the Houston defense is against the pass.
THE OUTCOME
I like Seattle in this one, but am expecting a low-scoring game.
Final Score: Texans 9, Seahawks 16
