Get that popcorn ready because the first game of the Monday night double-header should be a doozy. On a side note, did you know that you can purchase a bag of popcorn to go from the movie theater? And by bag, I mean BAG, which will probably last until next Monday night. You’re welcome.
Tampa Bay is 5-1 on the season. The run defense is tough, allowing 3.7 yards per carry and posting the sixth-best EPA per carry. The offense? Well, Baker Mayfield is +275 to win the MVP award at DraftKings Sportsbook, behind only Patrick Mahomes. He’s leading a pass offense that is sixth in EPA per dropback with 12 touchdowns to only one interception.
Detroit is 4-2 on the season. The run defense is also tough, posting the fifth-best EPA per carry. The pass offense is fourth in EPA per dropback with 15 touchdowns to two interceptions.
The run offenses are 12th (TB) and 15th (DET) in EPA per carry but this game should tilt towards the air, especially since Tampa Bay has allowed the 11th-highest EPA per dropback while Detroit is 18th.
Tampa Bay is only 23rd in pressure rate but has 16 sacks on the season while Detroit is 10th in pressure rate and has racked up 19 sacks. Detroit has nine takeaways while Tampa Bay has six.
After being on the road the last two weeks, Detroit finally returns home to the friendly confines. And we know what that means for Jared Goff, potentially making this an exciting, back-and-forth affair.
DraftKings Sportsbook has DET -6 over TB with the total at 53.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $300K Monday Night Showdown [$100K to 1st] (TB @ DET)
Captain’s Picks
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($16,800 CP): St. Brown leads the Lions with 51 targets. As mentioned earlier, the Bucs are very tough to run on, so the Lions will likely tilt towards the air. If so, St. Brown is going to get fed. He also leads all pass catchers with 12 red zone opportunities. Sam LaPorta is second with five. Brown has finished with at least 20 FPTS in four of six contests with a high of 42.2 FPTS.
UTIL Plays
Jared Goff ($10,000): Tampa Bay is very tough to run against. Hopefully, the third time was a charm. The concerns regarding Goff are no rushing equity and the two-headed monster of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery getting busy on the ground. As a result, Goff has finished with fewer than 20 FPTS four times. But that doesn’t mean a ceiling game is out of the question, as he put up 37 FPTS in Week 2, throwing five touchdowns. It wouldn’t surprise me if he throws at least three touchdowns in this one, with the possibility of more.
Isaac TeSlaa ($2,000): TeSlaa only has five targets on the season, catching three of them. He does have two touchdowns, though. Despite posting a bagel last week, TeSlaa played in 46% of the snaps, a season-high. I like this game to be a back-and-forth affair and the 6′ 4″, 214-pound receiver that runs a 4.43 40-yard dash to get this third touchdown of the season.
Cade Otton ($5,600): Mike Evans will likely return for this one, but Emeka Egbuka could be out along with Chris Godwin Jr. Otton received five and six targets over the last two weeks and should continue being an important part of the passing attack due to all the injuries at wide receiver. Otton has scored double-digit FPTS the last two weeks.
Fades
Jahmyr Gibbs ($10,400): I hate fading Gibbs because he’s awesome and is one of the best dual-threat backs in the league. That said, this is a salary cap game and I can’t play everyone. In addition, David Montgomery is still a huge part of the rushing attack while Gibbs has exceeded 20 FPTS only once this season. He’s the third-most expensive player on the slate.
THE OUTCOME
I like Detroit to bounce back in a big way at home after last week’s beatdown in Kansas City.
Final Score: Buccaneers 27, Lions 34
