The landscape of college football has shifted quite a bit through the opening seven weeks of the season. Several high-profile head coaches have already been axed, and multiple expected National Title contenders have played themselves out of the Top 25 completely. This has cleared the path for Ohio State’s quest to defend last year’s National Championship, and they remain in the top spot in the AP Poll. The Buckeyes will take on the Wisconsin Badgers this week as they look to remain undefeated.
Ohio State has faced Wisconsin 86 times across the program’s history. Wisconsin has come out victorious 18 times, and there have been five ties. Ohio State has won 63 of these total games, including each of the last 10 matchups. Wisconsin last took down the Buckeyes in 2010.
Looking at the odds for this year, Ohio State enters as 25.5-point favorites and holds -3200 odds on winning on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Wisconsin holds +1400 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 41.5 points for the matchup.
This article provides a preview of both teams and offers a pick for the Week 8 matchup.
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin prediction, preview
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State has been as close to perfect as a team can be at this stage of the season. The reigning National Champions are off to a 6-0 start and are 5-0-1 against the spread. They have defeated Texas, Grambling State, Ohio, Washington, Minnesota, and Illinois.
Ohio State is averaging 36.8 points per game, which ranks 23rd in the country, and is producing 421.5 average yards of offense. Outside of the 14-7 opening week victory over Texas, the Buckeyes have put up at least 24 points in every matchup and as many as 70 against Grambling State. They have been even more impressive on the defensive side of the ball. Ohio State is allowing the fewest points in the country at just 6.8 points per game and just 229.0 total yards of offense. The 16 points that Illinois scored in the previous matchup are the most they have allowed all year. They have allowed just four total touchdowns across their first six games.
Julian Sayin headlines the production at the quarterback spot for Ohio State. He has climbed to fourth in Heisman Odds at +1500 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Sayin is posting an FBS-best 78.4% completion percentage and has thrown for 1,479 yards, 15 touchdowns, and three interceptions. Jeremiah Smith sits right behind him in the Heisman race and has pulled in 40 receptions for 505 receiving yards and a Big 10-best seven touchdowns. Carnell Tate also adds 28 receptions for 476 yards and four touchdowns. Bo Jackson headlines the rushing attack with 407 yards and two scores, while CJ Donaldson has six rushing scores along with his 237 yards on the ground.
The tougher portion of the schedule will dictate this, but the Buckeyes have the potential to boast one of the better defensive units in college football history. Illinois marked the first team to score a touchdown in the red zone against them, and the Buckeyes are currently only allowing opponents to score on an absurd 33% of red-zone trips. Arvell Reese leads the team with 38 tackles, and Cade Curry posts a team-high 6.0 sacks. Collectively, Ohio State has produced 18 sacks and forced eight turnovers so far this season.
Wisconsin Badgers
After getting off to a 2-0 start to the season with victories over Miami (Ohio) and Middle Tennessee, they enter this matchup on a four-game skid. Their losses have come at the hands of Alabama, Maryland, Michigan, and Iowa. It is a difficult stretch of the schedule, but the panic should be legitimate following the previous 37-0 loss at the hands of Iowa. The Badgers lost by 14+ points in all four of these games.
Wisconsin has struggled to score the football this year. They are averaging just 15.5 points per game, which ranks 131st out of 136 qualifying FBS teams. They put up 42 points against Middle Tennessee, but have not surpassed 17 in any other game this year. The Badgers are averaging just 292.8 total yards of offense. On the defensive side of the ball, they are giving up 22.7 points per game and 317.0 total yards of offense. Wisconsin has allowed 24+ points in each of its past four losses.
Billy Edwards Jr. entered the season as the starting quarterback but has only been able to play limited time in two games due to a knee injury. Neither Danny O’Neil nor Hunter Simmons has been effective enough at the quarterback spot. Just last week against Iowa, Simmons only completed eight of his 21 pass attempts for 82 yards and two interceptions. Dillin Jones leads the team in rushing with 286 yards and two touchdowns, while Vinnie Anthony and Lance Mason each of 200+ yards through the air. Wisconsin ranks 110th in passing production and 108th in rushing yards per game.
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin pick, best bet
My first thought was toward the Wisconsin team total, with there seeming to be little pathway to the Badgers being able to have any sort of offensive success against this Ohio State defense. But this number sits at just 7.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook with the under favored at -145 odds.
Instead, I am opting for the game total to remain under 41.5. Wisconsin’s defense has had some flashes and should provide some level of resistance to this Ohio State offense. They rank 59th in scoring defense, and rank 34th against the run and 58th against the pass. Wisconsin also offers the 36th-best red-zone defense.
Head coach Luke Fickell very well could be coaching for his job and will look to provide a spark in this game. The offensive issues are pretty deep-rooted, and expect the game plan to be to eat some clock, control the pace, and hope for a chance at the end. Ohio State has cleared 41.5 points individually against Grambling State and Minnesota, but expect a better effort from Wisconsin. The home crowd will be behind the Badgers, and this is an important matchup for the future of Fickell and the program. Count on the Badgers’ defense to pull their weight and keep this a low-scoring battle before Ohio State inevitably begins to put points up. A 27-0 victory, or something close to that, feels entirely in play, so I am avoiding the spread. But look for the Wisconsin defense to give this program some shade of hope and for the total to finish below the 41.5 point game total.
