With the Premier League back in action after the October international break, one of the most-anticipated fixtures will take place on Sunday between Manchester United and Liverpool. The Northwest Derby has predominantly gone the way of Liverpool in recent seasons, but it still promises to be an exciting match with a rich history.
The Reds will enjoy hosting duties for tomorrow’s clash, which will begin at 11:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. local) at Anfield. Liverpool hasn’t lost at home to the Red Devils in the Premier League since January 17, 2016.
Unsurprisingly, Liverpool is a -165 favorite to win and +320 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Manchester United is +425.
Liverpool vs. Manchester United prediction, pick
The 2024-25 title winners got off to a lightning start to the 2025-26 season, winning each of their first five games behind late winners in every match. As of late, though, the Reds’ incredible fortune has halted, as they dropped 2-1 decisions to both Crystal Palace and Chelsea and lost 1-0 to Galatasaray in the Champions League. The defeat to the Turkish side was especially damaging, as striker Hugo Ekitike and goalkeeper Alisson both suffered injuries. Ekitike’s muscle injury was minor enough that he was able to return for a 16-minute relief spell as a substitute for Alexander Isak in the match against the Blues, but the star shot-stopper will miss the Northwest Derby and Georgi Mamardashvili will step between the sticks instead. Arne Slot’s side has other issues, too: Isak and Florian Wirtz have yet to record their first goals in the Premier League for Liverpool, while Virgil van Dijk and Mohamed Salah are both showing signs of their age. The Reds’ defense simply isn’t as clinical as it was last season.
Momentum is finally pointing in the opposite direction for the Red Devils for the first time in the Ruben Amorim era. United has climbed to 10th in the table behind three wins in its last five matches, with home decisions over Burnley, Chelsea, and Sunderland. Wins against the Clarets and the Black Cats don’t seem impressive on the surface, given that those two teams have just been promoted, but Sunderland has looked strong and actually sits one point ahead of the Red Devils in the table. They also produced better chances despite losing 3-1 to Brentford away. Benjamin Šeško has finally gotten off the mark with a goal in each of his past two matches, and captain Bruno Fernandes has bashed home a pair of goals himself. Altay Bayındır has faced 24 shots on target in six matches and saved only 54.2% of them, so perhaps United misses André Onana, on loan at Trabzonspor.
This game could be closer than the standards stats suggest. All the Red Devils need to do to pull off the upset is start scoring their chances at a higher rate, because they’ve actually produced the most expected goals in the league and have the fourth-best expected goal difference. They only sit 10th in the table because they’ve been more than three goals worse than the second-worst finishing unit in the Premier League, and there’s some hope that that could turn around, given Šeško’s recent uptick and the fact that Bryan Mbeumo scored as a substitute in Cameroon’s CAF World Cup Qualifying match against Mauritius. They’ll have a chance to turn it around tomorrow: Mamardashvili allowed two goals from 1.6 post-shot expected goals’ worth of chances against Chelsea and didn’t perform very well in Georgia’s two qualifiers this international break. Liverpool’s defense hasn’t allowed a ton of shots, but the shots it has allowed have been high-quality.
I can’t take United on the Moneyline, given its recent track record at Anfield, but the Reds really haven’t been convincing this season. I think the Red Devils will either win or draw, and I’m very confident they won’t lose by multiple goals.
