At 3:30 p.m. EST on Saturday, the No. 3 Indiana Hoosiers (6-0 OVR, 3-0 CONF) host the Michigan State Spartans (3-3 OVR, 0-3 CONF). This Big Ten showdown pits one of the nation’s best teams against a struggling program, but anything can happen in this sport any given week. After all, you never know with the B1G!
Here’s an Indiana vs. Michigan State prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Week 8 of the college football slate.
Indiana vs. Michigan State prediction, preview
Indiana Hoosiers
Who could’ve guessed a few years ago that Indiana — yes, that Indiana — would become a football school? Yet here the Hoosiers are with a top-three AP ranking this season after a College Football Playoff appearance during the 2024-25 campaign. Their wins so far this year came over Old Dominion Kennesaw State, Indiana State (FCS), Illinois, Iowa, and a then-No. 3 Oregon roster. It was the penultimate win of a quality first half of the year, and now Indiana looks to hit the second half hard with Heisman candidate Fernando Mendoza leading the charge (71.2% CMP%, 1,423 YDS, 17TD/2INT).
The Hoosiers have one of the nation’s best offenses with 39.2 points and 468 yards per game, also converting third downs at a 51.52% rate. They lean on a strong run game headlined by Roman Hemby (84 CAR, 421 YDS, 2 TD) and Kaelon Black (62 CAR, 375 YDS, 2 TD), but the passing attack is also quite formidable with Mendoza under center. Things largely flow through wideouts Elijah Sarratt (39 REC, 533 YDS, 7 TD) and Omar Cooper Jr. (29 REC, 466 YDS, 6 TD), with just one other player logging double-digit receptions. Defensively, Indiana is also quite strong with just 13.6 points and 259.4 yards allowed per game as well as a measly 25.40% third-down conversion rate.
Michigan State Spartans
On the opposite side is a Michigan State squad which has seen its season take a turn for the worse in recent weeks. After a perfect start with wins over Western Michigan, Boston College and Youngstown State (FCS), the Spartans have now dropped their last three games to USC, Nebraska and UCLA. Sure, the first two of those losses came to ranked teams, but all three came by double-digits. It’s unlikely they now get things back on track this week against one of the nation’s best teams.
Michigan State averages 27.2 points but just 309.2 yards per game, the second stat of which falls 120th in the country. The Spartans aren’t effective on third down, converting just 36.92% of opportunities, but a red-zone scoring percentage of 94.44% is inside the top 25. A balanced offense doesn’t lead to much yardage, and starter Aidan Chiles has thrown for just 1,019 yards, nine touchdowns and three picks with a 61.3% completion rate. Omari Kelly (24 REC, 347 YDS, 1 TD) and Nick Marsh (29 REC, 340 YDS, 4 TD) are his two top targets, and Makhi Frazier has tallied 383 yards and two scores on the ground. On the other side of the ball, Michigan State allows 33.4 points and 375.2 yards per contest and isn’t particularly efficient at stopping third downs or red-zone looks.
Indiana vs. Michigan State pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Indiana as a -27.5 point favorite at home on Saturday with -5000 odds on the Moneyline. Michigan State enters with +1800 odds to win outright with the game total set at 49.5 combined points.
These two programs find themselves in very different situations. The Hoosiers are riding high while building up into a potential powerhouse heading into the home stretch of the season, while the Spartans are simply working to stay afloat and salvage things before it’s too late. Players on both sides largely know what outcome to expect today; it’s just up to each to perform. With the best player in the game with Mendoza as well as an offense that can actually move the ball and a stifling defense, Indiana has a serious leg up today at Memorial Stadium. The Hoosiers should largely dominate in all phases, and with a pass rush with the fifth-best sack percentage in the nation (10.83%), they’ll keep the opposing quarterback off balance throughout the day. That’s especially true with the Spartans allowing a sack percentage of 9.52%, 120th overall. They’ll fall behind early and be forced to air it out, but it may be tough to find time to throw.
That 27.5-point spread remains quite large, so the over feels a little bit tempting in this matchup. However, Indiana is clearly a dominant team and comes off its best win of the season, if not the last couple of years. Fade the Hoosiers at your own risk.
