The Browns are hosting the Dolphins on Sunday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Cleveland is favored by 2.5 points and this game carries a total of 40.5 points.
Below, I’ll break down this matchup between the Browns and the Dolphins and give a pick for the game.
Browns vs. Dolphins prediction, pick
While the Browns and Dolphins both sit at 1-5 this season, these are two very different teams. Cleveland has been great on defense, but hasstruggled on offense; while Miami has been the opposite, as a strong offensive team, but a terrible club defensively. In fact, the Browns rank 31st in offensive EPA and 11th in defensive EPA, while the Dolphins rank 10th in offensive EPA and 32nd in defensive EPA.
With Joe Flacco now on the Bengals, Cleveland has been starting rookie Dillon Gabriel at quarterback the last two weeks. Gabriel has only thrown two touchdowns and is averaging just 5.1 YPA as a starter, yet he hasn’t recorded a turnover, which is a big improvement from Flacco, who threw six picks and lost one fumble in his four starts for the Browns. Protecting the ball is huge, but Gabriel needs to provide more as a passer for Cleveland to be successful, and that very well could happen this week. After facing two stout defenses in the Steelers and the Vikings, the 24-year-old now faces a terrible Dolphins’ secondary that is giving up the third-most yards per pass this season (7.6).
Miami has been equally as poor at defending the rush, with the club giving up the third-most yards per carry this season (5.6), so thriving rookie Quinshon Judkins should have a terrific showing in this elite spot. The 21-year-old is averaging 4.6 YPC this season and he has produced at least 71 scrimmage yards in four of his five games. Gabriel and Judkins both have the potential to have career-best performances vs. the Dolphins and if the Browns can do their job on the defensive end and slow down Miami’s offense, Cleveland will have an excellent chance to win this contest.
While the Dolphins rank highly on offense for the season, they have taken a step backwards since losing Tyreek Hill (leg). With the star receiver out the last two weeks, Miami is averaging the 11th-fewest yards per play (5.4). Jaylen Waddle has taken on an alpha role with Hill sidelined, leading the Dolphins with a 25.6% target share and 205 receiving yards the last two weeks, and De’Von Achane is fresh off a season-best showing of 128 rushing yards and two touchdowns vs. the Chargers last week. However,Tua Tagovailoa has been subpar sans Hill, throwing three touchdowns to three picks. Opposing quarterbacks have the third-shortest time to throw when facing the Browns defense this season and Tagovailoa could struggle in this tough road matchup.
Browns vs. Dolphins pick, best bet
Facing the Dolphins defense has been a cheat code for opposing offenses this season and the Browns should have their most productive day offensively of 2025. Plus, Cleveland’s stout defense has the tools to slow down this Hill-less Miami offense, especially with the Browns competing on their home turf.
Cleveland should notch its second win of the season and the Browns -2.5 is a very strong wager for Week 7.
