There are some great games on the NFL Week 7 slate.
This is a look at my best bets for NFL Week 7. You can place all of these bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 7 Best Bets
Panthers ML (-125) at Jets
The Panthers have found a spark in their offense, courtesy of running back Rico Dowdle. Dowdle started the season as a backup, but after Chuba Hubbard got hurt, Dowdle got promoted to the starting role. In two games as the primary back, Dowdle has combined for 473 scrimmage yards. His powerful running style could not be stopped by the Cowboys or the Dolphins, which has also unlocked the passing game for Bryce Young. If you wanted to pour cold water on the performances, you would say that Dallas and Miami have two of the worst defenses in the NFL. Dallas ranks 32nd in defensive EPA/play, and the Dolphins rank 31st. Luckily for the Panthers, this week’s opponent, the New York Jets, rank 28th in defensive EPA/play.
The Jets are the last winless team in the NFL, and they are actually playing worse now than they were earlier in the season. The defense is struggling to get stops and the offense has become a serious disaster. Unlike the Cowboys and Dolphins, who can create explosive plays to offset their defensive issues, the Jets’ offense ranks 29th in offensive EPA/play. Justin Fields has become unplayable, and that will likely only get worse with star receiver Garrett Wilson reportedly sidelined for the next several weeks. The Panthers have all the momentum coming into this game and much more talent on offense. Until the Jets prove they can beat an NFL team, I’ll bet against them in a spot like this.
Saints +4.5 at Bears
The Saints have been playing really well over the past three weeks. They put up a good fight on the road against the Bills, got their first win of the season against the Giants, and then played a tough game against the Patriots. Going into the season, many considered Spencer Rattler to be one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. However, out of 34 qualified quarterbacks this season, he ranks 20th in EPA+CPOE composite. While he won’t be getting any MVP votes, he is providing stability at quarterback for the Saints, something they have been lacking over the last several seasons. The Saints should be able to hang tight against Chicago on Sunday to cover this spread.
The Bears have won two games in a row, but both victories have come by exactly one point. Chicago deserves credit for finding ways to win, but a one-point win over the dreadful Raiders is nothing to write home about. Also, the Commanders gifted the Bears the game by fumbling in wet conditions while attempting to run out the clock. Chicago ranks 31st in the NFL in defensive drop back success rate. That means Spencer Rattler can continue to do what he has done so well this season, pick up key third downs. Over the Saints’ recent run of good play, Rattler has used his arm and his legs to pick up the yardage needed to keep drives alive. That is essential to winning games in the NFL and something Rattler should keep improving on. Just like the last two Bears games, this one should come down to the wire.
Six-Point Teaser: Falcons +7.5 & Patriots -1
The Falcons are coming off a huge win over the Bills, and now they head west to take on the 49ers. Atlanta announced itself as a real contender with that victory over Buffalo. Michael Penix Jr. played a great game, helped by two of the best offensive players in football: Bijan Robinson and Drake London. London and Penix continue to grow their connection, but Robinson is on another level. He leads the NFL in scrimmage yards this season and is a top contender for NFL Offensive Player of the Year. However, the real story is the Falcons’ defense. Raheem Morris has his unit playing at an incredibly high level. The Falcons rank fifth in the NFL in defensive EPA/play. Against a banged-up 49ers team, they should run the ball well and play enough defense to keep it within a score, at the very least.
The Patriots take on the Titans in the first game since Tennessee fired head coach Brian Callahan. Sometimes teams see a bump in production after the firing of a head coach. However, this roster is just not good enough to win. Of 34 qualified quarterbacks this season, only Dillon Gabriel has a worse EPA+CPOE composite than Cam Ward. Ward is struggling to get up to speed in the NFL and the lack of a run game isn’t helping. The Patriots have a great run defense and will force Cam Ward to throw, something he has not shown the ability to do at a high level. Drake Maye is playing at a high level and should lead his offense to another win in this game.
