The Capitals will host the Wild tonight at Capital One Arena at 7:00 p.m. ET. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Washington is a -125 favorite on the Moneyline, and the game’s total is set at O/U 5.5 goals. Logan Thompson and Filip Gustavsson have been named the starting goaltenders.
Below, I’ll share my top preview, prediction and pick for Friday’s tilt between the Capitals and Wild.
Capitals vs. Wild prediction, preview
Capitals preview
After dropping their first game of the season, the Capitals have secured three straight wins. The club is just one of three teams with fewer than 10 goals scored this season, and both Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome have just two points each through four games. 24-year-old Aliaksei Protas has picked up where he left off in 2024, leading the team in goals (3) and points (5). Logan Thompson is 2-1-0 with a 2.01 GAA and .921 SV%, and Charlie Lindgren stopped all 35 shots in his lone start.
Even though the Capitals rank fourth-to-last in goals per game (2.25), they are still creating plenty of high-quality chances. The club ranks first in 5v5 Goals%, second in 5v5 xGoals%, and fifth in 5v5 high-danger chances. The recipe is working for Washington, and its goaltending has helped. As a team, the Capitals have allowed the third-fewest goals per game (1.75) and rank third in goals against above expected.
Wild preview
The Wild enter tonight’s matchup with a 2-2-0 record and on the second game of a five-game road trip. Kirill Kaprizov leads Minnesota in both goals (4) and assists (5) through four games. Matthew Boldy ranks second with four goals and four assists, with 19-year-old Zeev Buium ranking third with one goal and four assists. What carried Minnesota in 2024 while Kaprizov was on the shelf was Filip Gustavsson, but he is 1-2-0 with a 3.06 GAA and .888 SV%.
Minnesota has netted 14 goals and ranks in the middle of the pack on a per-game basis (3.50), but it has found success primarily while on the man advantage. A whopping 10-of-14 goals have come via powerplay, with Kaprizov leading the way with four. The Wild rank 14th in both 5v5 xGoals% and 5v5 high-danger chances, but the poor goaltending has prevented the team from success. Among goaltenders with at least one game played, Gustavsson ranks 43rd in SV% above expected and 46th in goals saved above expected.
Capitals vs. Wild pick, best bet
Minnesota has won eight of the last 10 matchups against Washington, but its current offensive production feels rather unsustainable. While the Capitals rank third-to-last in PK%, the club is tied for the fewest penalty minutes in the league (22). They also play their second straight home game while the Wild are in the middle of their five-game road trip. It’s hard to back Gustavsson over Thompson, too. If the Wild are going to win this game, they must produce at even strength, and that is something that they simply have not done to start the season. 67% of both the handle and bets on DraftKings Sportsbook lie with Capitals ML.
