What ever happened to home field advantage?
After dropping the first two games of this series in Toronto, it appeared that the Blue Jays were staring down a very disappointing and quick exit from the ALCS. However, in Game 3 and Game 4, the club’s bats have woken up, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leading the charge. The $500 million man is 6-for-9 over the last two nights with a pair of home runs, a pair of doubles and four runs scored.
Can Guerrero Jr. and the rest of Toronto’s hitters keep riding the momentum back to Canada? Let’s preview Game 5, which gets going at 6:08 p.m. ET, with the help of some of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 5 prediction, preview
It’s deja vu all over again, as Kevin Gausman and Bryce Miller will take the mound for their respective teams in Game 5. It was an up and down regular season for Gausman, but the 34-year-old finished strong, posting a 2.81 ERA and a 2.76 FIP in the 13 starts he made following the All-Star break. That stretch included a 26.2% strikeout rate and a 5.31 K/BB ratio, which was somewhat reminiscent of the absolutely dominant version we saw of the right-hander in 2021, 2022 and 2023. Gausman isn’t quite that guy anymore, but he has been solid in both of his postseason appearances, pitching into the sixth inning in each outing. Gausman was actually looking fantastic in Game 1 of the ALCS, having surrendered 16 straight opponents before Cal Raleigh crushed a solo home run with two outs to open the scoring for the Mariners. Raleigh has long been a nemesis of Gausman, with the backstop now 8-for-17 (.471) in his career against the All-Star with four long balls.
For as good as Gausman pitched in Game 1, Miller was even better. The start got off to an inauspicious beginning, with George Spring clubbing a leadoff opposite field home run, but Miller settled in after that, pitching six innings and allowing only one more hit. The big takeaway was how much Miller’s stuff played up in the outing. To wit, the right-hander’s fastball sat at an average of 94.8 mph during the regular season. On Sunday, Miller’s average fastball velocity was 96.2 mph. It will be interesting to see if the 27-year-old can maintain those velocity gains in Game 5, though it’s worth noting that he was doing so in Game 1 on just three days rest. It will also be interesting to see if Miller can continue to outperform his underwhelming regular season numbers. Limited to 18 starts, Miller registered a 5.68 ERA and a 5.32 xERA across 90.1 innings of work, anchored by a first percentile opponent average exit velocity (92.4) and a second percentile opponent hard hit rate (48.6%). It was some ugly stuff and, without an injury to Bryan Woo, it’s likely Miller wouldn’t currently be in Seattle’s playoff rotation.
Opposing Miller will be a red-hot Blue Jays lineup, one the comes into Game 5 slashing an eye-popping .301/.353/.547 in the postseason. For some context, Toronto’s .900 OPS is the best mark in MLB. The Dodgers sit second at .761. No other club currently owns an OPS above .700 in the playoffs. As mentioned above, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is once again locked in at the plate, but it might be the Blue Jays’ LHBs in the spotlight on Friday night, as Miller was destroyed by left-handed hitters throughout the regular season. In fact, Miller conceded 2.29 opponent long balls per nine within the split. That could put the onus on Nathan Lukes, Addison Barger and Daulton Varsho to step-up. Who knows? Maybe light-hitting shortstop Andres Gimenez hits a home run for a third straight contest and cements his incredulous push for ALCS MVP.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 5 pick, best bet
Best Bet: Cal Raleigh 2+ Total Bases (+126)
Raleigh has great career numbers off Gausman and 57.1% of his hits during the regular season went for extra-bases.
Strong Lean: Kevin Gausman Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-127)
Gausman’s hit this over in both of his prior postseason starts and John Schneider showed a longer leash in Game 3 and Game 4.
