Iowa is hosting Penn State for a Week 8 matchup on Saturday night. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET in Iowa City, Iowa.
The Hawkeyes are listed as 3-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 40.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction, and best bet for this Big Ten conference matchup between Iowa and Penn State.
Penn State vs. Iowa prediction, preview
Penn State Preview
Things could not have gone worse in Happy Valley this season. Penn State was one of the favorites to win the national title this season, after returning the bulk of its team that made the CFP semifinals last season. However, after losing to Oregon in its first big test of the season, the wheels came off at Penn State. The Nittany Lions lost to UCLA and Northwestern, two of the worst teams in the Big Ten. That was the last straw for the Penn State athletic department, leading to the firing of James Franklin. To make matters even worse, Drew Allar got knocked out for the remainder of the season against Northwestern. Now, this team will be led by interim head coach Terry Smith, formerly the associate head coach and cornerbacks coach. At quarterback, Penn State will now be starting redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer.
Iowa Preview
It has been a decent season for Iowa so far. The Hawkeyes lost a tight one to their in-state rivals, Iowa State, as well as a close game to No. 3 Indiana. Neither of those losses is anything to scoff at, and Iowa won its two other Big Ten games against Rutgers and Wisconsin. In fact, the Hawkeyes are coming off a 37-0 evisceration of Wisconsin. They showed what they can do against an inexperienced quarterback, something that should concern Ethan Grunkemeyer and the Penn State coaching staff. Like typical Iowa teams, they can’t create anything explosive through the air on offense. However, they can move the ball efficiently on the ground. They should lean on that run game against Penn State on Saturday.
Penn State vs. Iowa pick, best bet
My best bet for this game is the under 40.5. It’s difficult to determine how this first game post-James Franklin firing will go. College sports have become a business, so these players won’t totally quit. Whether they want to be a part of Penn State’s future with whoever they hire next or land at a good spot in the transfer portal, the players need to put out good tape. However, with the loss of Drew Allar exacerbating the already somber attitude in Happy Valley, it’s hard to trust this Penn State team. The Nittany Lions should lean on their talented rushing duo to alleviate the pressure on their freshman quarterback, making his first career start. Iowa will also come with a run-heavy approach, as they have all season. By EPA/play, these are two of the 33 best defenses in the country, facing two bad offenses. The only bet that makes sense here is trusting the defenses and taking the under.
