The New England Patriots are back. For the first time since 2021, New England leads the AFC East with a 4-2 record, and second-year quarterback Drake Maye looks like a legitimate MVP candidate, trailing only the Detroit Lions’ Jared Goff in completion percentage. Stefon Diggs has been remarkable for a 31-year-old coming off of a season-ending torn ACL, catching 32 passes for 387 yards, including an 146-yard effort in Week 5 against his former team, the Buffalo Bills. But the Patriots might be without Diggs during Sunday’s road clash against the Tennessee Titans, as he’s questionable with a chest injury.
If Diggs misses Sunday’s game, that could open up an opportunity for some of New England’s less heralded receivers to step up. The veteran leads the team in targets, catches, and receiving yards, but Kayshon Boutte is close behind him with 18 catches, 301 yards, and a team-leading three scores and Demario Douglas has 10 catches for 101 yards and two scores. It’s worth noting that Diggs was a full participant in practice on Friday, per the Patriots’ injury report, but given that New England would be comfortably favored over the Titans regardless of Diggs’ status (and over the Cleveland Browns next week), it might choose not to rush the veteran back into action unless he’s 100%.
Given that Boutte out-paces Douglas in every stat except for longest reception this season, I like him more to be the focal point of the Patriots’ passing game if Diggs sits. Though Douglas had better output last season, recording 621 yards to Boutte’s 589, Boutte’s efficiency numbers tended to be better than Douglas’. This season, Boutte has taken his production to a new level: his 78.3% success rate ranks second among 135 qualified receivers and his 78.3% catch rate is ninth among qualified wideouts. His catch rate is doubly impressive when you consider that his 15.5-yard average depth of target is the 11th-longest in the league. There’s a reason Boutte has been Pro Football Focus’ 17th-ranked wideout, nine spots behind Diggs and 55 ahead of Douglas.
Boutte has a pretty friendly opponent this weekend in Tennessee, which has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to wideouts this season and has had a below-average coverage unit by PFF grades. The Titans’ best coverage corner, Roger McCreary, typically lines up in the slot, which should hurt Douglas vis-a-vis Boutte. There’s a big drop-off in coverage ability between McCreary and Tennessee’s top-rated regular outside cornerback, Jalyn Amour-Davis. McCreary has posted the league’s 20th-highest coverage grade among 109 qualified receivers this season, while Amour-Davis ranks 25th-to-last.
