It feels like not too long ago that teams were jockeying for playoff positioning. Now, the National League could be decided as soon as tonight, with the Los Angeles Dodgers holding a 3-0 lead in the National League Championship Series over the Milwaukee Brewers. The American League will still continue for at least two more days, with the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays knotted at two games apiece.
It also could be the last time this season that there’s a two-game slate for a classic fantasy baseball contest. Here are two pitchers, three infielders, and three outfielders from tonight’s all-important games that I would put in my fantasy lineup for tonight’s featured DFS contest on DraftKings.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $100K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st].
PITCHER
Stud
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers, $8,500 – Milwaukee had one of the league’s best offenses in the regular season, posting the league’s fourth-highest OPS after the All-Star break, and it’s very possible that a bounce-back is incoming. But this Dodgers starting rotation has been the story of the postseason, and Ohtani may well be the best No. 4 starter in league history. In his lone postseason start, he completed six innings and allowed three earned runs on three hits, walking one and striking out nine (26.5 FPTS). Arguably, he got unlucky; his FIP in that game was 1.14 despite pitching to a 4.50 ERA. The Brewers have gone just seven-for-59 against right-handers so far this series, though it’s actually their better platoon split.
Value
Jose Quintana, Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, $6,500 – I’m going with the other starter in this game. Milwaukee’s pitching hasn’t been the problem; the Brewers have actually held the Dodgers’ high-powered offense to just 10 runs across the first three games, which could’ve been enough to win if they hadn’t scored just one run in each game. Advanced stats don’t love Quintana — he had just an 11th-percentile expected ERA and he doesn’t produce many whiffs or strikeouts — but his inability to get whiffs should be neutralized by Los Angeles’ propensity to whiff and his solid ground ball rate should produce plenty of outs, given that each of Milwaukee’s infielders are average to above-average fielders.
INFIELDER
Stud
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners, $5,200 – Guerrero had a quiet two games at the Rogers Centre but has exploded in Seattle, hitting homers in each of the last two games as the Blue Jays’ high-powered offense has woken up. He’s been the most productive player on any team this postseason, slashing .455/.500/.970 and averaging 16.5 FPTS per game, and though Bryce Miller ($7,300) shut him down in Game 1, it was an anomalous performance for a pitcher who recorded a 5.68 ERA during the regular season, including a 5.80 mark at T-Mobile Park. Miller has allowed just a second-percentile hard hit percentage, and Guerrero is nearly as much of a masher as his famous father.
Stud
Josh Naylor, Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $4,000 – The Mariners’ more ballyhooed corner infield addition from the Arizona Diamondbacks at the trade deadline was Eugenio Suárez ($3,600), but Naylor has been the far better player this postseason. After a slow first few games of the playoffs, he’s really woken up in the last six, posting a .500/.520/.833 slash line and notching four 20-plus-FPT performances. The Canadian also has a platoon edge against Kevin Gausman ($8,000), given that he’s posted an OPS 84 points higher against righties than lefties. More than half of Gausman’s pitches to lefties are four-seam fastballs, and Naylor has hit .314 against righty four-seamers.
Value
Tommy Edman, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers, $3,400 – The 2024 NLCS MVP was the one who finally broke the deadlock for the Dodgers last night when he slapped a Jacob Misiorowski slider into center field for an RBI single, and his base-running ultimately forced an Abner Uribe throwing error that brought Freddie Freeman ($5,000) in to score as well. He’s averaged 7.6 FPTS per game so far these playoffs, a 1.2-FPT uptick relative to the regular season, and he also averaged 1.4 more FPTS per game at home than on the road during the regular season. Quintana likes to throw either changeups or sinkers to right-handed batters, and those are the two pitches against which Edman has posted his highest run value.
OUTFIELDER
Stud
George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners, $5,400 – A noted playoff riser who had a white-hot second half of the season, Springer has recorded nine or more FPTS in each of the first four games of this series as part of an 11.2-FPPG postseason overall. This hot form isn’t anything new; between the regular season and playoffs, he’s averaged 12.1 FPTS per game in 10 games against Seattle, which isn’t a minuscule sample size. Plus, he finds the optimal launch angle at one of the league’s highest rates, which is critical in pitcher-friendly coastal Pacific Northwest conditions. He’s also posted a ridiculous .713 slugging percentage against right-handed four-seamers and a .605 slugging percentage against righty sinkers, which combine for 62% of Miller’s pitches against righties.
Stud
Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $5,300 – I feel like I’ve been reasonable with the budget so far, so let’s double up on star outfielders in this ALCS and take Rodríguez, who hit first-inning go-ahead homers in both Games 2 and 3, although the Game 3 bomb ultimately proved to be for nothing. I also thought about going with Randy Arozarena ($4,200), who could score plenty of runs while being driven in by Cal Raleigh ($5,500) and/or Rodríguez, but he’s hitting just .158 these playoffs. Rodríguez is also a better fit for Gausman’s pitch mix: Gausman likes to throw splitters to righties in addition to four-seamers, and Rodríguez has put up a .500 slugging percentage against right-handed splitters while being every bit as good against four-seamers as Arozarena or Raleigh.
Value
Jake Bauers, Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, $2,700 – Bauers recorded 10 FPTS last night after hitting an RBI single in the second inning against Tyler Glasnow and subsequently stealing second base, and he also hit a pinch-hit double in the ninth inning of Game 1. While he’s utterly useless against left-handed pitchers — part of the reason his DFS salary is so low — Los Angeles should have a pretty righty-heavy pitching plan today, with (likely) six innings from Ohtani and one from closer Roki Sasaki on the docket. Ohtani has a very eclectic pitch mix overall, but he tends to throw four-seamers most frequently against lefties, and Bauers has had a .556 expected slugging percentage against right-handed four-seamers.
