GPPs are not won by using a lineup with all the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event in your roster construction can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust.
Hence, the goal of this article won’t be to just highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names. We won’t avoid all the chalky names, because good players are still good players most of the time. However, highlighting contrarian roster constructions and ways to make your lineup unique while maximizing upside will be the goal.
Remember, in most cases, the person who finishes in 10,000th place and the person who finishes in 1,269th place receive the same amount of money in many of these larger field contests, so there is no reason to simply follow the crowd to feel comfortable.
Let’s dive into Week 7 of the 2025 NFL season.
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Top DFS Contrarian Stack
Game Stack: Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders
Patrick Mahomes ($7,000) – Xavier Worthy ($6,100) – Travis Kelce ($4,700) – Ashton Jeanty ($7,000)
This week sets up as a great spot for Patrick Mahomes to continue to pad stats for his MVP campaign. The Raiders are a true funnel to the pass defense that ranks top 10 in most advanced run stats as a defense but are just 19th in EPA per dropback. With KC already leading the league in PROE (pass rate over expectation), this is a game where we could see Mahomes drop back 40+ times, assuming the Raiders keep it close, and potentially rip 4+ passing TDs by the end of the game, something he has done vs. Vegas four times already in his career.
If that sort of day comes to fruition, then expect Travis Kelce to end up being one of the leaders in FP among TEs in Week 7 as well. Kelce has slowed down a little, but even last season, in two games vs. the Raiders, he managed to average a stout 8.5 receptions, 79 yards, and 0.5 TDs. While Rashee Rice will certainly funnel off some targets, Kelce is averaging 6.0 receptions over his last three games and will be a popular red zone target for Mahomes this week, given how well the Raiders stack up against the run in that area.
As much as you have to like the cheaper price you’re getting on Rice ($5,600) this week, he’s going to end up being one of the most popular players on the slate if he suits up. As such, I’d much rather take a game theory approach to the Chiefs WR situation and target Xavier Worthy ($6,100) over him, who needs less volume to go off and could even benefit from more deep targeting if the Raiders decide to overcompensate vs. Rice. All told, with the Chiefs’ WR situation being so congested with targets, I’d much rather fade the higher-owned option and roll with the high-variance, high-upside play in Worthy.
For a comeback play, both Tre Tucker ($5,300) and Jakobi Meyers ($5,500) have some appeal, but I’d much rather get up to RB Ashton Jeanty if possible. KC is a much weaker rush defense (28th EPA per rush) than they are against the pass (10th EPA per dropback), and Jeanty’s seen good usage in the passing game of late (11 targets in his last two games), a trend that would have a great shot at continuing this week against the Chiefs’ blitz-heavy scheme.
Quarterback
Bo Nix ($5,600)
Nix is obviously coming off a terrible game, where he and the Broncos barely scraped together a win vs. the Jets, but this is a solid bounce-back spot. The Giants have surrendered the 7th-most passing yards to opposing QBs this season and allowed Jalen Hurts to go for 8.1 yards per attempt vs. them in Week 6. Overall, Nix has produced two games already with 21 or more FP, and his DraftKings price – even in this plus matchup – is at its lowest point of the season.
This game doesn’t have a huge game total, but Denver’s 23.75 implied team total is eighth-largest on the slate, and their offensive players will all likely go underowned thanks to their DST being so popular. In that regard, Nix isn’t just a good value but also a good leverage play vs. the Broncos DST lineups, making him my favorite cheap QB option for those looking to build low-cost stacks in Week 7.
Running Back
Saquon Barkley ($7,700)
It’s been a struggle this season for Barkley to get going, who enters this week having been held to under 60 rushing yards in four straight games. However, last year’s leading rusher is in a great spot to break out of his slump in Week 7. The Eagles have extra rest coming in off Thursday Night Football and will face a Minnesota defense that ranks 25th in EPA vs. the rush and has allowed over 90 yards to an opposing RB in back-to-back games.
The Eagles obviously don’t need to see more of Justin Jefferson than needed this week, especially with their secondary so banged up, so extra attention to getting Barkley going should be the aim of the offense, right from the get-go. If ever there were a spot to pay up for him and potentially even use him as a lower-owned Jonathan Taylor pivot, this would be it.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt ($6,100)
Croskey-Merritt managed only 61 yards and 1 reception for 7 yards in the Commanders’ loss to the Bears in Week 6, but his 71% rush rate in Week 6 was a season high, and he was one of only two backs to receive a carry in that game, the other of whom was Jeremy McNichols, who helped fumble away the game for them late in the fourth. Overall, Week 7 should be a perfect bounce-back spot for him vs. the Cowboys.
For the season, Dallas has now allowed the third-most FP per game to opposing RBs and is dead last in success rate vs. the run. It’s a perfect time for the Commanders to go heavy on the run with Croskey-Merritt, especially considering their top two WRs in Deebo Samuel (heel) and Terry McLaurin (hamstring) are both questionable this week. From a cost and opportunity standpoint, he’s also a great way to get solid exposure to this Dallas-Washington game, which has the highest game total on the slate at 54.0.
Wide Receiver
Courtland Sutton ($5,900)
Sutton has been up and down for fantasy purposes and is coming into Week 7 off a terrible game, where he managed just 1 reception for 17 yards on 3 targets. The Broncos made it a thing to avoid Sutton’s tough matchup with Sauce Gardner over in London, and while that was frustrating if you were on him for season-long purposes, don’t expect the same treatment this week. The Giants don’t have a true shutdown corner and come into this week’s game having allowed the third most FPPG to opposing WRs on the season. They’ve now allowed at least one WR to go for 70+ yards in each of their six games and have also allowed the most yards to WRs on the season.
You also have a little precedence on your side with Sutton this week, who also had just one catch in Week 2 but rebounded the next week with his best game of the season, a 26.8 FP game vs. a tough Chargers secondary. With the Giants being a better matchup, a similar outcome could easily be on the table.
Luther Burden ($4,300)
Burden had his second solid game of the season in Week 6, posting 4 receptions and 51 yards while playing on just 23% of the overall snaps. While he didn’t play a ton, even after DJ Moore went out, Burden did lead the team with a 31% TPRR (Targets per Routes Run) in Week 6 and is starting to become a favorite target of both Caleb Williams and HC/OC Ben Johnson.
Moore’s status for Week 7 is very up in the air, so Burden could easily see a solid bump in snaps yet again and will be facing off against a weaker New Orleans defense that ranks just 28th in EPA per dropback on defense. Assuming Moore misses, it’s a great spot to deploy the rookie who would carry tons of upside in this matchup at $4,300 if he were to get regular deployment as a top-three WR in the Bears offense.
Tight End
Tucker Kraft ($4,900)
Kraft is in a major upside spot in Week 7. On top of the Packers being -6.5 road favorites with a 25.5 Implied Team Total in a dome, the Cardinals also set up as potentially the worst defense in the league at stopping TEs. For the year, they’ve allowed the 6th most FPPG to opposing TEs but have also allowed the second most yards to the position.
Being that Kraft has essentially cemented himself as the best yards–after the-catch receiver in the game at this point and leads all TEs with 10 or more catches at 14.9 yards per reception on the season, he’s likely to be the focal point of the Green Bay passing attack again in Week 7. If the Cardinals can keep this game even remotely close, the chance for Kraft to put up another 100+ yard game like he did vs. Washington in Week 2 is certainly on the table.
Defense/Special Teams
Colts ($2,800)
Los Angeles benefited last week from facing a Dolphins rush defense that is ranked dead last in pretty much every advanced metric but won’t find the going as easy against the Colts, who haven’t allowed an RB to go for more than 80 yards against them all season. If the Chargers have to drop back 35+ times in this spot, it could lead to some dangerous situations for Justin Herbert, who is still without his top T in Joe Alt and will be up against a pass defense that is ranked 8th in EPA per dropback and third in INTs.
That high INT ranking is the result of a pass rush that has been consistently excellent and recorded at least two sacks in every start and averaged 3.0 per game on the year. While Herbert is certainly good enough to overcome this spot it’s also one where the Colts could be teeing off all game on Herbert, who is now the fifth-most sacked QB (per game) through six weeks. Overall, it’s just a great buy-low spot on the Colts who have already produced three games of 13+ FP on the season and are likely to be low-owned on the Week 7 main slate.
