Of the four series in the 2025 NBA playoffs to go the distance, arguably the most compelling was the second round clash between the eventual champion Oklahoma City Thunder and the Denver Nuggets, which featured several close endings in Games 1, 3, 4, and 5. If not for some horrendous, anomalous shooting luck on wide-open fourth-quarter triples from Denver, the Larry O’Brien Trophy could easily be in Colorado, not Oklahoma, right now.
The two teams will rematch tonight with much lower stakes in what is each team’s preseason finale. The game will begin at 8 p.m. ET in Oklahoma City.
The Thunder are 7.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-258 on the Moneyline), with the point total set for 229.5. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are +210 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down one of the rematch and offer a prediction.
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder preview, prediction
Of course, with both David Adelman and Mark Daigneault set to employ preseason rotations, this is hardly a marquee matchup between two of the West’s best teams. Regardless, any time 2024-25 MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and runner-up Nikola Jokić take the floor, it’s must-see TV, and so far, neither superstar has been ruled out yet.
It’s possible that one or both will ultimately rest, given that the regular season starts for Oklahoma City next Tuesday and Denver next Wednesday, but Adelman played each of his likely rotational players for at least 18 minutes in the Nuggets’ 124-117 win over the Chicago Bulls on Tuesday, so he seems to be taking preseason seriously. The Thunder have mostly rested their top players, though Chet Holmgren is questionable to make his preseason debut tonight.
All in all, Denver has been more impressive in this preseason than Oklahoma City has, going 3-1 while playing a more difficult slate of opponents than the Thunder have. Two of Oklahoma City’s three wins have come against the Charlotte Hornets and the other came against a Milwaukee Bucks team that sat free agent center acquisition Myles Turner. The Nuggets, meanwhile, managed to edge out an LA Clippers team playing all of its regular rotation pieces besides offseason signing Bradley Beal.
Nuggets at Thunder pick, best bet
The Thunder’s injury list for tonight’s game is lengthy: in addition to Jalen Williams, who underwent offseason wrist surgery at the start of July and looks likely to miss time at the start of the season, Oklahoma City will also be without its last two first-round picks, Thomas Sorber (torn ACL) and Nikola Topić (testicular procedure), reserve forward Kenrich Williams, and shooting specialists Isaiah Joe and Ajay Mitchell. Holmgren has been dealing with shoulder soreness, and I see no reason why Daigneault would risk his injury-prone big man in such a meaningless game.
Even without Jalen Williams (or Kenrich Williams, or — sometimes — Jaylin Williams) or Holmgren, the Thunder have been decent defensively this preseason, allowing just 107.0 points per 100 possessions — the 12th-best mark among NBA teams, though they also trail Melbourne United. They’ve also, expectedly, averaged the second-most steals and the 12th-most blocks among NBA teams while doing a decent job protecting the ball, allowing the eighth-fewest points in the paint and the eighth-fewest fast break points. As it turns out, Daigneaut’s defensive schemes mostly work whether the wing defenders are Williams and Luguentz Dort or Brooks Barnhizer and Ousmane Dieng.
They might not work against the well-oiled machine that is Denver’s new-look offense, though. Jokić has looked as comfortable as ever, dropping 18 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists in just 24 minutes in the win over the Bulls, and Murray’s 30-point performance was impressive despite a balky outside shot. Christian Braun has continued to demonstrate improvement after a breakout 2024-25 season, as he averaged an ultra-efficient 12.3 points per game across the first three contests before struggling with his shot against Chicago. New addition Cameron Johnson hasn’t yet found his outside shot but had the second-highest plus-minus on the team through the first three games, providing value on both sides of the ball.
The Nuggets are humming, shooting the fourth-highest field goal percentage and the 10th-highest offensive rating, and while they haven’t been quite so defensively stout, they’ve at least allowed the ninth-fewest made threes per game and the seventh-fewest boards, which should be expected for a team featuring both Jokić and Jonas Valanciūnas. Denver has also been more disciplined, getting whistled for fewer fouls and drawing more than Oklahoma City has.
It’s possible that Holmgren plays well off the bat and that Gilgeous-Alexander plays enough minutes to lead his team to a win, but +210 odds for a team that arguably should’ve made the conference finals and is clearly in regular season mode is too good to pass up. Give me the Nuggets on the Moneyline.
