An ACC matchup takes center stage in the afternoon on Saturday as the Clemson Tigers (3-3 OVR, 2-2 CONF) welcome the SMU Mustangs (4-2 OVR, 2-0 CONF) to Death Valley. There’s plenty at stake in this contest as questions swirl surrounding Dabo Swinney’s future with the Tigers’ program, while on the other side the Mustangs try and remain unbeaten in conference play as they compete for a potential ACC title.
Read up on the matchup with a Clemson vs. SMU prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Week 8 of the college football slate.
Clemson vs. SMU prediction, preview
Clemson Tigers
The situation in South Carolina took a nosedive just a couple of weeks into the season as the Tigers dropped a couple of winnable games, raising some serious eyebrows from fans. Expectations are always high for Dabo Swinney’s program, but the wins have come over Troy, UNC and Boston College while losses occurred at the hands of LSU, Georgia Tech and Syracuse. Obviously the Tigers no longer hold a ranking in the AP Poll, and while the last two weeks of wins are encouraging, there are still obvious issues.
Clemson averages 26.3 PPG with 408.8 yards of total offense, both outside the top-40 teams in the nation. The team converts third downs at just a 37.84% rate and doesn’t have a truly standout run game with an average of 130 yards on the ground. Adam Randall paces runners with 404 yards and four touchdowns on an average of 5.4 YPC. The passing attack does post solid raw numbers with 278.8 yards per game behind Cade Klubnik, who’s completed 65.8% of his passes for 1,530 yards and 11 touchdowns while also tossing five interceptions. He hasn’t played up to expectations, though top wideout Bryant Wesco Jr.’s 31-537-6 receiving line remains quite impressive overall. Defensively, the Tigers hold opponents to just 18.5 PPG and 323.2 yards, both top-25 marks nationwide. They also limit foes to a 32.47% third-down conversion rate, though they’re 56th in sack percentage (6.73%) and 75th in takeaways per game (1.2).
SMU Mustangs
As for SMU, the Mustangs are proving they belong in this conference for the second straight year after a College Football Playoff appearance last season. This program has a couple of cakewalk wins over East Texas A&M and Missouri State, but they beat the same Syracuse squad Clemson lost to and just topped Stanford 34-10 last week. Losses to TCU and Baylor do hurt, but at the very least, the latter came 48-45 in an overtime thriller. This team is capable of more than its record shows, though.
The Mustangs’ offense averages 32.4 points and 405.8 yards per game, 33rd and 45th-best in the country. Similarly to Clemson, SMU doesn’t run the ball as often as it passes and averages 124.4 yards on the ground with 4.0 YPC, but the top two backs do have some talent — T.J. Harden paces the backfield with an 85-415-5 rushing line. The passing attack averages 281.4 yards and 8.4 yards per pass, running through Kevin Jennings with his 71.7% completion rate, 1,658 yards and 15 touchdowns. He’s been turnover-prone with six picks though. Top wideout Romello Brinson’s 32 catches for 484 yards and three scores are all team-highs, though Jalen Cooper and Jordan Hudson each have 15 catches for 271 and 203 yards with two TDs, respectively. The defense is somewhat strong itself, giving up 24.2 points and 437.6 yards with a bend-don’t-break approach. The sack percentage of 6.99% sits 50th, but the Mustangs are sixth in takeaways per game with 2.2.
Clemson vs. SMU pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Clemson as a -4.5 point favorite at home on Saturday with -205 odds on the Moneyline. SMU enters with +170 odds to win outright with the game total set at 50.5 combined points.
Many folks may point toward the gap in brand recognition between a “big program” like the Tigers and a school with less prestige as their primary reasoning for a Clemson win. While the home team does have a leg up defensively, they’ve really struggled at times and are very difficult to trust on a week-to-week basis. Here’s the deal. If Klubnik can play a clean game and exploit an SMU secondary allowing a staggering 330.2 yards per game through the air, his team stands a chance of winning. However, this Mustangs defense forces turnovers at a high rate and can punish the quarterback or ballcarriers in an instant. Protecting the football becomes priority number one for the Tigers, especially since SMU stymies the run with a top-30 defense in terms of rushing yardage allowed.
On the flip side, the Clemson defense does look quite good to this point and limits yardage, scoring, third-down conversions, and especially YPC (opponents average just 3.3 yards per attempt via the ground). The Mustangs may have their work cut out for them attacking in this one, but we’ve seen them post plenty of points at times this year and it’s much easier to trust their offense than their opponent’s. This becomes a case of inconsistent Tigers offense vs. passable defense, with the flip side a great SMU offense vs. great defense. Realistically, the Mustangs have a pretty good shot at hanging close and even threatening an upset as long as they don’t waste possessions themselves.
