The Premier League is back this weekend after the second international break of the season, as all 20 teams are in action in the next three days. Teams in hot form dread the international break for fear of losing momentum or a star player getting injured, but they’re a lot more palatable to teams looking to get back on track.
Chelsea and Nottingham Forest both fall into the latter category. After each finished in a European place last season, the Blues have taken just four points from their last four matches and Forest is only one point ahead of the drop zone, taking just one point from its last five. One of these struggling teams might have the chance to get back into winning ways when they meet at 7:30 a.m. ET (2:30 p.m. local) tomorrow at the City Ground.
Chelsea is a -110 favorite to win and +285 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Tricky Trees are +280.
Chelsea vs. Nottingham Forest prediction, pick
Shortly before the international break, the Blues had come off of a tough stretch, losing to Bayern Münich in the Champions League and then Manchester United and Brighton in the Premier League. A 1-0 win in the Champions League over Portuguese side Benfica wasn’t all that impressive, either, given the chasm of on-paper talent between the two sides. But they ended the segment on a high, nothing a 2-1 victory over Liverpool behind an Estêvão 95th-minute winner, though they arguably got lucky to win given that the Reds produced 1.9 expected goals’ worth of chances and only got two of their 12 shots on target. Although Cole Palmer has hardly played this year while dealing with hamstring injuries, Chelsea’s Brazilian forward duo of Estêvão and João Pedro have both been good and Moisés Caicedo has produced banger after banger. Enzo Fernández has also notched three goals and an assist while playing all but 12 minutes. Robert Sánchez has been disappointing after leading the Premier League in save percentage in 2024-25.
Meanwhile, Forest has underwhelmed even more. It had a legitimate chance at finishing in a Champions League place for most of last season, but a 1-0 defeat to the Blues on the final day condemned it to a Europa League place. Mats Selz, who tied for the league lead in clean sheets with Arsenal’s David Raya, hasn’t kept any this season, although his 75.7% save percentage still ranks a solid eighth. Up front, Chris Wood thrashed home 20 goals last season and has only scored twice so far this season despite having produced 2.7 expected goals’ worth of chances. Losing Anthony Elanga, who led the team last season with 11 assists, has clearly hurt, as no Tricky Tree has more than one assist this season. Elanga’s replacement, Dan Ndoye, has made only nine progressive passes, whereas Elanga is a more natural playmaker. Forest has also been the fourth-least sharp tackling team after ranking a more respectable ninth in that category last season. It played a back three against Newcastle and allowed 17 total shots after losing to Midtjylland while playing the same formation.
After posting a net spend of 110 million Euros, it’s hard to believe that the Tricky Trees have struggled as much as they have this season, but by expected goals, they’ve been better than only relegation fodder Burnley and the only point they’ve gotten in their last six matches came against the Clarets. To be fair, their only win came at home, which should give them a chance against Chelsea, but a 3-0 defeat to West Ham (whom the Blues battered, 5-1) and a 1-0 loss to newly promoted Sunderland aren’t exactly reasons for optimism. Chelsea, too, has slightly over-performed relative to its position by expected goals, but it has picked up a solid four points on three matches away from home and has been fairly competitive in every single match it has played. Plus, Estêvão had a great international break with the Brazilian national team, netting a brace in a 5-0 thrashing of South Korea in Seoul. The brilliant South American trio of him, Caicedo, and Fernández will all play a factor as the Blues take all three points.
