TCU is hosting Baylor for a Week 8 matchup on Saturday afternoon. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET in Fort Worth, Texas.
The Horned Frogs are listed as 3-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 65.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction, and best bet for this Big 12 conference matchup between Baylor and TCU.
Baylor vs. TCU prediction, preview
Baylor Preview
The Baylor Bears are still alive in the loaded Big 12 race. While Texas Tech leads the field, Baylor is in a group of one-loss teams hoping to get the other spot in the Big 12 title game. Their lone loss in conference came to Arizona State in a hard-fought game. Baylor is led by the most explosive quarterback in the country. Sawyer Robertson leads the nation with an absurd 343 passing yards per game. He has been nearly unstoppable this season, willing the Bears to victory over Kansas State last time out. After that big win, Baylor got a much-needed bye week to prepare for this game against TCU. Sawyer Robertson will do his part, but the Baylor defense needs to rise to the occasion and slow down Josh Hoover if the Bears want to win.
TCU Preview
It has been an up-and-down start to the season for TCU. They dominated UNC in the opener and got another good out-of-conference win over SMU. However, they have already picked up two losses in Big 12 play, dropping games to Arizona State and Kansas State. Quarterback Josh Hoover is among the best in the nation, ranking second in the country in passing yards per game, behind only Sawyer Robertson. Hoover has an elite wide receiver, Erik McAlister. However, outside of that, TCU is devoid of high-end offensive weapons. TCU’s biggest flaw is its pass defense, a major concern when facing Sawyer Robertson and Baylor. The Horned Frogs need to bounce back and get a win at home here, or risk their season getting away from them
Baylor vs. TCU pick, best bet
My best bets for this game are on Baylor +3 and the over 65.5 points. These are the two leading passers in the nation, and both are incredibly experienced players. Robertson should carve up the TCU defense, which ranks 124th in the nation in defensive EPA/pass. Hoover and TCU should also move the ball, potentially utilizing the ground game more than usual. Baylor ranks 113th in the country in defensive EPA/rush, so TCU might try to pound it on the ground to then open up the deep pass game for Hoover. These two teams faced off last year with the same starting quarterbacks, and it ended with a 37-34 Baylor win. I expect a similar result in this game, with both offenses winning the day, but a Baylor win. Baylor has a slightly better defense that could come up with a key stop or two. Robertson has also been the better quarterback the last couple of weeks, and should find a way to win his team the game in a shootout.
