ECU is hosting Tulsa on Thursday night of Week 8. The game will take place at 7:30 p.m. ET in Greenville, North Carolina.
The Pirates are 17.5-point home favorites in this game on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 53.5 points. This is a preview, prediction and pick for Thursday’s American Conference matchup.
Tulsa vs. ECU prediction, preview
Tulsa Preview
It has been a tough start to the season for Tulsa. The team won a huge non-conference game against Oklahoma State, which seemed like a promising sign. However, it has become clear that Oklahoma State is one of the worst teams in the country, despite its name value. Tulsa followed up that big win by getting blown out in its first two conference games. Granted, those losses game against two of the better teams in the conference, Tulane and Memphis. The more troubling part is the combined score of those games being 76-21. Tulsa’s offense has struggled to score all season, ranking 109th in the country in offensive EPA/play. ECU is capable of putting up points in bunches, so the defense will need to rise to the occasion to keep this game close.
ECU Preview
ECU has just about met expectations so far this season. The Pirates had tough non-conference games against NC State and BYU, losing both of those games. They also lost by a touchdown on the road against Tulane, one of the best teams in the American Conference. They have won their three other games, including dominating Army and Coastal Carolina, both solid wins. ECU quarterback Katin Houser is in his second season as the starting quarterback for the Pirates and is playing solid football this season. If ECU can find a way to get the ground game to complement the passing game, this offense could compete with the best of the American.
Tulsa vs. ECU pick, best bet
My best bet for this game is the first-half under 28.5 points. Tulsa’s defense is solid against the pass, ranking 60th in the country in defensive EPA/pass. However, it struggles to stop the run, ranking 94th in defensive EPA/rush. This is a favorable matchup, as ECU doesn’t have the ground game to exploit that weakness. On the other side, ECU has a great defense. The Pirates rank fourth in the nation in defensive EPA/rush and 15th in overall defensive success rate. They should be able to virtually shut down the Tulsa offense, allowing them to be methodical on offense, rather than push for the explosive play. There is a chance the game gets out of hand late, with Tulsa pushing to get back into it. That could generate some explosive plays or a defensive score for ECU, which is why I am taking the first-half under, rather than the full game.
