The Steelers are road favorites on a short week in the division on TNF in Cincinnati, which can always be a dangerous spot — see Eagles vs. Giants last Thursday. That said, I am looking to back a player prop on the favorite in this one, as the number is becoming a head scratcher on Jaylen Warren’s rushing yards.
Warren opened up with a rushing yardage prop in the mid-50’s on DraftKings Sportsbook, and it’s steadily been on the decline. If things were trending towards more of a 50/50 split with Kenneth Gainwell, then the move would make sense. While anything could be going on behind the scenes, the market indicates that’s not the reason for the move, as Gainwell’s prop has held pretty steady.
While I think the spot sets up nicely for the Bengals, I believe Pittsburgh has an advantage running the ball in this game, regardless of game script. Cincy ranks near the bottom of the league against the run, and is giving up the third-most rushing yards per game to the running back position at nearly 120 per game — only Chicago and Miami are worse.
The Bengals managed to limit the Browns on the ground in Week 1, but that was before Quinshon Judkins was in uniform. Since Week 1, here’s how opposing starting running backs have performed against Cincinnati:
Week 2: Travis Etienne 14-71-0
Week 3: Jordan Mason 16-116-2
Week 4: JK Dobbins 16-101-0
Week 5: David Montgomery 18-65-1
Week 6: Josh Jacobs 18-93-2
During that span, three other running backs also rushed for 42 or more yards while serving as the secondary rusher. While Warren hasn’t exactly been putting up big numbers this season, he’s also played some very good defenses and been battling injury. Warren was held under 50 yards in each of his first three games, and missed the international game where Gainwell filled in and ran for nearly 100 yards.
But Warren did have his best game of the season on Sunday, taking 11 carries for 52 yards against a Cleveland run defense that ranks tops in the NFL. After a light workload on Sunday, look for Warren to be ready to go on the short week in a plus matchup. I like him to exceed his declining rushing prop of 47.5 yards on TNF against the Bengals.
NFL Pick: Jaylen Warren OVER 47.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
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