These are my picks to win every Week 7 NFL game straight up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier.
You can bet on any of these games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 7 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Chiefs over Raiders
The Chiefs are coming off a fantastic win over the Lions in Week 6. A loss in that game would have put the Chiefs in a big hole if they hoped to continue their AFC West run of dominance. However, they are now just a game behind the Chargers and Broncos for the division lead. Patrick Mahomes is 12-2 in his career against the Raiders, and as Las Vegas continues to struggle to start this season, the Chiefs should get an easy win here.
Patriots over Titans
The Patriots are looking sharp to start the Mike Vrabel era. There were some hiccups over the first couple of weeks, but this offense is humming at a high level with Drake Maye at the helm. The Patriots rank third in the NFL in offensive EPA/dropback and should tear up a Titans defense that ranks 25th in defensive EPA/dropback. Tennessee just fired its head coach, but that likely won’t solve any of the major problems they have on both sides of the ball.
Bears over Saints
The Bears picked up a huge win over the Commanders last week on Monday Night Football. The NFC North is one of the toughest divisions in football, but Chicago is hanging in there in its first season under Ben Johnson. The Saints are starting to play better, but this is the type of game that the Bears need to win if they want to be a playoff contender. The Saints rank 28th in the NFL in defensive EPA/dropback, so this is a great chance for Caleb Williams and his receivers to win the day.
Broncos over Giants
The Jaxson Dart era with the Giants has been a rollercoaster so far. They had an impressive home win over the Chargers, lost a road game to the Saints and then picked up another great home win against the Eagles. They are headed back on the road to face the Broncos, arguably Dart’s toughest test yet. Denver is one of the hardest places to play, especially for a rookie quarterback. Between the elevation and the Denver defense, Dart could struggle in this game. The Broncos rank first in the NFL in defensive EPA/play and defensive success rate. The Giants made a bunch of mistakes against the Saints and could be forced into similar mistakes in this game.
Packers over Cardinals
The Packers have had an up-and-down start to their season. Through the first couple of weeks, they looked like the best team in the NFL. Then they lost to the Browns and tied the Cowboys. In one of those games, they couldn’t score, and in the other, they were unable to get a stop. However, after a well-timed bye week, they looked more like the team from the beginning of the season in a win over the Bengals. Kyler Murray missed last week’s game with an injury, and even if he returns for this one, his mobility is likely not at 100%. Whether Murray plays or not, the Packers should pick up another win in this spot.
Medium Confidence
Lions over Buccaneers
The Lions took a loss in a tough spot on the road against the Chiefs. However, they have a chance to bounce back against a Buccaneers squad that just keeps winning. Baker Mayfield is getting well-deserved MVP shouts this season, but Jared Goff is playing excellent football as well. He leads the NFL in completion percentage over expected, ranks third in success rate and fifth in EPA/play. The Lions are one of the most complete teams in the NFL. Only the Lions and the Colts rank in the top ten in the NFL in both offensive and defensive EPA/play. In front of their home crowd, this is a game that the Lions win.
Steelers over Bengals
The Steelers take on the Bengals on Thursday Night Football. The Steelers have won three straight games and have another favorable matchup here. Even after making the change to Joe Flacco at quarterback, this Bengals offense is just missing something this season, even outside the obvious. Pittsburgh plays well enough on both sides of the ball to ensure they win the games that they should, like this one.
Eagles over Vikings
The Eagles are in desperate need of a win. The defending champions looked shaky despite a 4-0 start to the season. That shakiness was a real issue as they proceeded to lose their next two games against the Broncos and Giants. While a road trip to Minnesota is always tough, this is a chance for the Eagles to get back on track. Defensively, they should shut down Carson Wentz, who has struggled the past two games that he started. If J.J. McCarthy makes his return, the Eagles should similarly shut down the Vikings’ offense. The Eagles need to get Saquon Barkley going, and if they do that, they should win this game.
Commanders over Cowboys
The Commanders took a Week 6 loss to the Bears and need to get things back on track. They have to take advantage of the Eagles’ lackluster start if they want to win the NFC East this season. That means beating the inferior teams in the division, like Dallas. The Cowboys have a great offense, but Washington also ranks in the top ten in offensive EPA/play and offensive success rate. They can score with Dallas and have the better defense to get a couple of key stops.
Seahawks over Texans
This is a great game between a Seahawks offense that has been fantastic this season and one of the best defenses in the NFL, the Texans. Seattle leads the league in offensive EPA/dropback, while Houston ranks third in defensive EPA/dropback. It will be fun to watch, but the Texans don’t have any firepower on offense. Eventually, the Seahawks’ offense should win the battle and simply score too much for Houston to keep up.
Coin-Flip Games
Panthers over Jets
These are two of the worst teams in the NFL, with questionable coaches on both sidelines. However, the Panthers are showing signs of improvement. The addition of Rico Dowdle has been a revelation for this offense, as he has been the best back in the NFL the past two weeks. The dominance of the run game has helped Bryce Young get easier looks. The Jets look like a dumpster fire destined for a winless season, so it’s impossible to pick them to get a win until something changes.
Falcons over 49ers
This should be one of the best games of the weekend. The Falcons are coming off a huge primetime win over the Bills. They have a chance to be real playoff contenders with Bijan Robinson, Drake London and a defense that ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA/play. The 49ers have been riddled with injuries this season and will now be without Fred Warner for the rest of the season on top of everything else. Mac Jones is starting to show why he ended up as a backup quarterback, and this defense is wearing down with all the injuries. Atlanta could keep its momentum going with a big win here.
Rams over Jaguars
The Rams are one of the most complete teams in football. They rank inside the top seven in both offensive and defensive success rate. It’s always tough to take on the Jaguars in their second home in London. However, the Rams have no real weaknesses to exploit. Even without Puka Nacua, they are the better team and should find a way to win.
Chargers over Colts
The Colts have been the surprise team of the season. Daniel Jones is playing quarterback at a high level, Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in rushing and their defense is among the best in the league. However, the Chargers are capable of taking them down in Los Angeles. The Chargers’ defense ranks in the top eight in the NFL in defensive EPA/play and defensive success rate. They can slow down this Colts offense and make this a competitive game. If this comes down to one or two plays, I’ll back the home team to get the win.
Browns over Dolphins
This is a gross game between two struggling teams. The Browns rank 31st in the NFL in offensive EPA/play, while the Dolphins rank 31st in defensive EPA/play. Something’s got to give in that matchup between two awful units. However, the Cleveland defense is the best unit between the two teams. They should force some turnovers and make life easier on their offense in terms of field position. Cleveland should be able to run the ball and play defense to ensure a home win.
