Two of the better quarterbacks of the 21st century will face off on Thursday Night, looking to squeeze out every last drop of what they still have left in the tank. Aaron Rodgers will lead the Pittsburgh Steelers for the sixth time this season, while Joe Flacco will suit up for the Cincinnati Bengals for the second time after being traded there last week.
The Steelers are off to a 4-2 start to the season and have taken a commanding lead in the AFC North. The Bengals got off to a 2-0 start to the season but have lost four straight since Joe Burrow’s injury. Trading for Flacco was the band-aid fix the organization landed on to attempt to stay afloat until their star returns, but the Bengals have to produce more wins for the postseason to be in play.
Looking at the odds for this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup, the Steelers are favored by 5.5 points and hold -265 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Bengals hold +215 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at 43.5 points.
There are numerous ways to get involved in the action beyond simply backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 7 opener between these divisional foes.
Steelers at Bengals Best Prop Bets
Tee Higgins Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
It has been a rough start to the season for Tee Higgins, with subpar quarterback play being the driving reason why. Through the first six games, he has pulled in just 18 receptions on 30 targets for 220 yards and two touchdowns. He has posted receiving totals of 33, 56, 15, 32, 22, and 63.
Joe Flacco will not be confused with the version of himself that made his way into “elite” conversations years ago. But he gives this offense a pulse in the way that Jake Browning did not. Flacco threw for 219 passing yards and two touchdowns in his Bengals’ debut and showed some encouraging production in the second half. Higgins pulled in five of his eight targets for a season-high 63 yards. Cincinnati has also essentially abandoned its running game due to its offensive line struggles and threw the ball 45 out of 61 plays last week.
The Steelers have a weak passing defense that ranks 27th in passing yards allowed, with an average of 245 yards given up through the air per game. Higgins has also had great success against the Steelers in his career, notching 53+ receiving yards in four straight matchups. He averages 87.1 receiving yards per game against Pittsburgh and has tallied over 46.5 yards in six of the eight games in his career. The Steelers have already allowed 95 yards to Garrett Wilson, 103 to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 90 to Cooper Kupp, 114 to Jordan Addison, and 126 to Justin Jefferson this season.
Expect Flacco to be willing to air the ball out and for Higgins to be prepared to make plays. The production has been lacking to start the season, but he has had over 1,000 receiving yards twice already in his career and 900+ in four of his five seasons. This prop line has dipped to the point where there is value, and look for Higgins to clear this total just as he has in 12 of his previous 17 games.
Jaylen Warren Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
The Steelers’ rushing attack was a bit of a mystery coming into the season. While Kenneth Gainwell and rookie Kaleb Johnson will still be in play for carries, Jaylen Warren has emerged as the favorite back. Through the opening four games that he has been active, Warren has rushed the ball 54 times for 184 yards while adding 153 receiving yards and a touchdown through the air. He is averaging 13.4 rush attempts per game, with Gainwell next at 8.2 per contest. This is also a bit inflated with Gainwell receiving 19 carries in the London game against the Vikings, which Warren missed due to injury.
Looking at this matchup, Cincinnati has struggled to get any sort of reliable defensive production again this season. Through their first six weeks, they rank 30th in points allowed and 31st in yards conceded. They have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards and sixth-most rushing touchdowns already this year. Josh Jacobs rushed for 93 yards and two scores just last week. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 119 yards against them, J.K. Dobbins rushed for 101 yards, and Jordan Mason tallied 116 rushing yards and two scores over the past four weeks.
Warren has posted rushing totals of 37, 48, 47, and 52 so far this season. This has come against the Jets (23rd in rushing defense), Seahawks (2nd), Patriots (4th), and Browns (3rd), who have each had much more success stopping the run. Expect Warren to capitalize on cleaner running lanes and have a pathway to his best rushing output of the season. He is coming off a season-high 52 rushing yards against the Browns, and look for him to match or surpass this total against a much weaker defense.
D.K. Metcalf Anytime Touchdown (+135)
Aaron Rodgers has thrown to plenty of talented wide receivers throughout the years, but D.K. Metcalf is making his case for why he deserves to be mentioned among the best the four-time MVP has ever played with. Through their first five games together, Metcalf has pulled in 19 receptions for 356 receiving yards and four touchdowns. He is logging an NFL-best 11.6 yards after the catch, posting a wild 23.1% target share, and has reached the end zone in four consecutive weeks.
While the Cincinnati rush defense struggles are notable, their pass defense has been even more concerning. Looking at the raw stats, they rank 31st in passing yards allowed, 27th in passing yards conceded, and 30th in net yards per pass attempt. They also post the fifth-worst DVOA and rank 26th in coverage grade per PFF.
Rodgers has shown his trust in Metcalf as he leads the team with 31 targets. Calvin Austin III has the next most targets at the wide receiver position with 17. Over the last two games alone, Metcalf has nine receptions for 221 yards and two scores. There is no true match for his chiseled 6-foot-4 frame, and he already has a few highlight reel catches this year when Rodgers has simply put it up for grabs. Expect Metcalf to be looked at as the primary weapon in the red zone and have plenty of chances to break free for a long touchdown throughout. Cincinnati’s defense is no match for his skillset, and count on the Steelers’ star to reach paydirt for the fifth consecutive week.
