The Kings will play host to the Penguins at Crypto.com Arena tonight at 10:00 p.m. ET. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Los Angeles is a -205 favorite on the Moneyline, and the game’s total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll share my top preview, prediction and pick for Thursday’s tilt between the Kings and Penguins.
Kings vs. Penguins prediction, preview
Kings preview
The Kings have started the new season a bit flat. They’ve totaled just three points through four games and have dropped back-to-back games to the Jets and Wild. Adrian Kempe has posted one goal and one assist in back-to-back games, and leads the club in points (5), with Quinton Byfield and Anze Kopitar tied for second (4). Darcy Kuemper is 0-2-1 with a 3.35 GAA and .868 SV%, and Anton Forsberg allowed five goals on 35 shots in a shootout win over the Golden Knights.
At least the Kings are consistent because they’ve scored the ninth-fewest goals per game (2.75) and allowed the ninth-most goals per game (3.75) through their first four games of the season. The theme of the number nine continues, as the club also ranks ninth in both powerplay percentage (23.1%). Positive regression feels likely, considering Los Angeles ranks 12th in 5v5 xGoals% and 10th in 5v5 Corsi%, but is struggling to score more goals than it is allowing.
Penguins preview
Pittsburgh is in the same boat as Los Angeles and ranks similarly to the club across the first week of the season. The Penguins are 2-2-0, with back-to-back losses to the Rangers and Ducks. 39-year-old Evgeni Malkin leads the team in points (6), with Justin Brazeau and Sidney Crosby tied for second (4). Both Tristan Jarry and Arturs Silovs are 1-1-0 thus far, but they’ve been below average to start the season, with each sporting a 3.01 GAA and .892 SV% or worse.
The Penguins rank right next to the Kings in goals per game (2.75) and goals allowed per game (3.25). The primary difference, however, is that Pittsburgh is creating high-quality chances, ranking third in both 5v5 xGoals per 60 and 5v5 high-danger chances. Much like the Kings, the goaltending has held the team back, with Silovs and Jarry ranking 28th and 35th, respectively, in SV% above expected.
Kings vs. Penguins pick, best bet
Silovs and Forsberg are starting in opposite creases, which means tonight should feature plenty of goals. On DraftKings Sportsbook, 76% of the handle and 71% of the bets have been placed on over 6.5 goals, which is set at +110. The over has hit in six of the past 10 meetings between these two teams, and both offenses have enough weapons to take advantage of the weak goaltending in each crease.
The Penguins won both matchups against the Kings in 2024, and it’s foolish not to expect the likes of Malkin and Crosby to toy with a goaltender who allowed five goals in his first start. So, I have a slight lean toward taking the Penguins straight up on the Moneyline at +170. 74% of the handle, but only 21% of the bets lie with Penguins ML.
Lean: PIT Penguins Moneyline (+170)
