It’s that time of the year. With several teams falling out of the playoff mix already, and contenders beginning to take shape, the trade rumors are flying. One team is seemingly coming out of the blue into the wide receiver market: the New York Giants. They have their sights set on a big-name receiver before the deadline.
If they make a move for Chris Olave or Jaylen Waddle ahead of the deadline, how does it change the fantasy outlook of those two receivers?
Analysis
Waddle’s response to a down 2024 campaign was a big question. After turning in strong fantasy production in the first three years of his career, he took an unexpected dip last season. But the production is back this year. Waddle has been the WR11 in on DraftKings, pulling in 29 catches for 390 yards and three scores in six games.
But the Dolphins are flailing. They’re 1-5 and bound to fire Mike McDaniel sooner than later. Tyreek Hill is out for the year, Tua Tagovailoa is struggling, and they can’t defend anyone. Waddle is young, productive, and under contract for several years; he’d fetch a great price at the deadline.
Chris Olave is another young receiver reestablishing himself after a down season. The 25-year-old posted 70+ catches and 1,000+ yards in each of his first two seasons. But last year, his concussion history cropped up again, and he had only 400 receiving yards while missing nine games. This season, he’s back in form. Through six games, Olave has 39 catches for 342 yards and a score on a whopping 64 targets.
With the Saints struggling mightily, Olave has been the go-to target of the young Spencer Rattler. Though his yards per reception have dived, the sheer volume has returned him to WR2 territory, as Olave is the current WR24.
Both players have been productive this season, and the Giants would undoubtedly be better teams than the ones they’d leave. But would a move to New York be a boon for Olave and Waddle?
The verdict
The problem here is twofold. One, the Giants are the best of the three teams in question (NYG, MIA, NO). The game script will favor the run more often, and that can reduce their targets. Head coach Brian Daboll wants to run the ball with Cam Skattebo, and new starting QB Jaxson Dart loves to take off and run as well.
Dart is another problem. Through three starts, the Ole Miss product is averaging 28.3 passing attempts for 169.3 passing yards. Malik Nabers’ injury has certainly played a role in this lack of passing production, but there were bound to be growing pains regardless.
The outlook in the long run for Olave or Waddle would improve as a Giant. This team has a clear future, and playing in tandem with Nabers next year and beyond improves their big play outlook. But I think their rest-of-season outlooks would decline in this trade. Miami, for better or worse, is throwing the ball. Rattler locks on to Olave when he needs to move the ball. The volume for both receivers would likely decrease, even as Jaxson Dart’s top option.
If you’re an Olave or Waddle owner in redraft leagues, pray they stay where they are through the deadline.
