AFC North matchups are spiritually all Thursday Night Football games. Ugly, filled with defense, and littered with poor uniform choices. That’s no different this Thursday when the division-leading Pittsburgh Steelers take on the flailing Cincinnati Bengals.
Pittsburgh is a -5.5 favorite on the road on DraftKings Sportsbook. If you fancy a Bengals home upset, they’re priced at +220 on the Moneyline. The over/under for this game is set at 44.5 total points. Let’s go ahead and get into a pick and prediction for this Thursday Night AFC North showdown.
Bengals vs. Steelers prediction, preview
A fun bit of drama this week is the matchup between Joe Flacco and Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. The two went head-to-head quite often when Flacco was the quarterback for the Baltimore Ravens, but have only faced each other once since 2018. Now Flacco is a Bengal after being traded away by the Cleveland Browns, and Tomlin sure had some thoughts on that.
Jake Browning was not cutting it for the Bengals, so going after another QB option made sense during Joe Burrow’s absence. Tomlin is right in that there’s an element of strangeness to helping your division rival upgrade a position of need. However, it seems Browns GM Andrew Berry was validated after Flacco struggled to move the ball last week in his debut for his new team.
Facing a tough Packers defense, the Bengals were held scoreless in the first half. As usual, the running game was dead in the water and they needed 50 dropbacks from Flacco to get the chains moving. But he locked in on his WR1 in the second half and let Ja’Marr Chase go to work, and quickly found success. The top-tier wideout finished with 10 catches for 94 yards and a touchdown, one of his better games of the campaign through six weeks.
They’re going to need Flacco and Chase to go to work again facing this Steelers defense. They’re 10th in net yards per passing attempt allowed with strong playmakers in the secondary and an elite pass rush led by T.J. Watt, so it’s a tall task for anyone to find success. It doesn’t help that the Bengals’ running game has been in rough shape all year, and will be up a creek against this stout front seven.
Not only has the Pittsburgh defense been strong, but Aaron Rodgers looks resurgent. The mercurial four-time MVP is completing 69% of his passes and has thrown 10 touchdowns to three picks. He’s looked like a great game manager who has shown a strong connection with DK Metcalf, who looks every bit like the receiver the Steelers hoped to acquire in the offseason.
Both teams are in different places, but the rivalry remains the same. Who will prevail?
Bengals vs. Steelers pick, best bet
It’s tough to pick the Bengals here, even at home on a short week. Pittsburgh has been stout in all facets of the game and looks like the runaway AFC North favorite. But in what should be a grimy game, it’s tough to get behind their spread. Instead, I’ll take the value on the under here and count on a classic AFC North rock fight.
