The Sabres are just one of three teams left in the NHL that have yet to record a win, and are looking to change that when they host the Brady Tkachuk-less Senators tonight. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Buffalo is a -105 underdog on the Moneyline, and the game’s total is set at O/U 5.5 goals.
Below, I’ll share my top preview, prediction and pick for Wednesday’s Atlantic Division tilt between the Sabres and Senators.
Sabres vs. Senators prediction, preview
Senators preview
It will be challenging for the Senators to replace Brady Tkachuk. The team captain posted three assists in three games but will miss at least the next four weeks due to a hand injury. Luckily, Drake Batherson, who is coming off a career-best 68-point season, is making his season debut on Wednesday and will slot into Tkachuk’s first-line role. Plus, Ottawa has the depth to still generate high-quality chances against a leaky Sabres team that has allowed at least three goals in each game this season.
The Senators have averaged just the 10th-fewest goals per game, but rank second in 5v5 xGoals % and fifth in 5v5 Corsi % so far this season. The club may be due for some positive regression and puck luck soon, but the goaltending has been rough to open the new season. Linus Ullmark has posted an abysmal 4.07 GAA and .842 SV% across three starts this season, and the team ranks second in goals allowed per game. Ottawa ranked inside the top 10 in PIM/GP in 2024 and has continued the undisciplined play this season, ranking third in the league in PIM/GP through three games.
Sabres preview
On the other side is the winless Sabres, who have scored just a league-low two goals in three games. This was expected for Buffalo; however, the team has dealt with a laundry list of injuries to start the season. Zach Benson is expected to make his season debut tonight, which should help the team on both ends of the ice. But the team is still missing multiple defenseman on top of its starting goaltender.
Buffalo has allowed at least three goals in each of its first three games, despite Alex Lyon sporting a 2.73 GAA and .919 SV%. He’s been an incredible offseason addition, but the team is not giving him any sort of help, whether it’s defensively or offensively. The Sabres have allowed the fifth-most shots on goal per game and averaged the 16th-most shots per game. The offense isn’t generating high-quality chances, ranking last in 5v5 high-danger chances and second-to-last in expected goals. The signs for positive regression are very limited with this team.
Sabres vs. Senators pick, best bet
The Sabres tend to show up when playing against the Senators. They won four of five meetings last season, winning three of those by at least three goals. However, I’m a Sabres fan, and I refuse to fall for this trap. 76% of the handle and 46% of the bets on DraftKings Sportsbook have been placed on the Sabres Moneyline (-105), likely due to the absence of Tkachuk. The historical success is there for the Sabres, but the Senators are still the better team, and I’m fading the public. I lean toward the OVER 5.5 goals at -130, too, as seven of the past 10 meetings between these teams have gone over.
Lean: Over 5.5 Goals (-130)
