After a serious knee injury as well as a six-game suspension, Kansas City Chiefs wideout Rashee Rice makes his long-awaited return to the field in Week 7. The team’s offense appears revitalized this season, as does the fantasy football value of fellow wideouts Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown. When Rice comes back on Sunday, how does his presence impact the fantasy outlook for his teammates?
Analysis
Rashee Rice last played in an NFL game on September 29, 2024. During that contest, a freak accident resulted in Patrick Mahomes landing on the wide receiver’s leg and a torn ligament in his knee. Rice underwent surgery to repair the injury and missed the remainder of the season, but his return to play took longer than anticipated due to a six-game suspension for a traffic-related incident which took place in March 2024. Now that he’s served his time to begin the 2025 campaign, he finally retakes the field this Sunday in Week 7 against the Raiders.
After a couple of down years in which the team played ball-control football while emphasizing the run, the Chiefs’ aerial attack seems to be rounding back into form. Kansas City averages 25.8 points and 360.0 total yards per game, both top-10 marks, and the passing game averages the fifth-most attempts and eighth-most yards per contest. Through six weeks, Mahomes has thrown for 1,544 yards and 11 touchdowns, sixth and fifth-best among all quarterbacks with the third-most attempts. It’s set up his pass catchers quite well as Hollywood Brown comes in as the PPR WR21 with 13.0 FPPG and Xavier Worthy has posted double-digit fantasy points in all three games he’s been healthy for, with room for even more. Even Tyquan Thornton has posted multiple usable weeks thanks to some deep-ball ability. How does Rice impact the outlook for those guys?
The third-year wideout came on strong to end his rookie season back in 2023, finishing with 79 receptions for 938 yards and seven touchdowns on 102 targets. He finished with an average of 13.3 FPPG and clearly earned the trust of Mahomes down the stretch as a reliable option. In three healthy games in 2024, Rice garnered 29 targets and caught 24 of those for 288 yards and two scores. He averaged 16.2 FPPG and looked like a bona fide WR1 for fantasy football purposes prior to the injury, showing immense upside as a primary target for his all-world quarterback.
Rice may begin his 2025 campaign somewhat slowly since he hasn’t taken the field in a game situation in such a long time. His return from the layoff almost assuredly comes with some rust, but he doesn’t rely on his athleticism in the same way a player in the ilk of a traditional X receiver does. Instead, he excels as a zone-coverage beater who finds soft spots in the defense to settle in — much like teammate Travis Kelce. Per Reception Perception, Rice actually graded out in the 99th percentile in that split during his short 2024 sample. He also splits time between the slot and outside alignments, versatile usage which raises his upside significantly. He likely emerges as a top-target earner in this offense just as he was with over nine looks per game when healthy last year, paving the way for a WR2-caliber floor.
Taking that into consideration, the outlook for Worthy and Brown changes to varying degrees. In Worthy’s case, the second-year speedster has shown growth since being drafted and earned plenty of trust in Andy Reid’s offense with a sizable role as well as lots of gadget-type work. With his high draft capital and elite speed, he’ll remain a staple in this attack for the foreseeable future. Rice’s presence will open things up for teammates, possibly creating more potential for splash plays if defenses pay less attention to Worthy. He’s still a very viable fantasy play with immense upside in a high-volume offense, though he likely won’t earn targets at a high rate. Think low-end WR2 value with some major boom weeks.
As for Brown, well, things take a nosedive if and when Rice enters the picture in a featured role. The veteran has earned 44 targets in six games, nearly eight per contest to this point. He’s produced on those opportunities, but opportunities for slot work will decrease, as will overall target share. He’ll become more of a low-end FLEX fantasy option at best who managers will hope for a touchdown from to truly pay off. He’s not a player to trust moving forward, nor is Thornton or JuJu Smith-Schuster, who both slide further down in the pecking order in this wide receiver room.
