After an eventful summer, basketball season is upon us once again. The Oklahoma City Thunder have a chance to repeat, while the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers will look to overcome injuries and remain relevant. LeBron James’ possible retirement continues to loom large, especially with Luka Doncic now ready to play a full season with the Los Angeles Lakers – not to mention Kevin Durant starting fresh with the Houston Rockets.
Without further ado, it’s time to break down futures for the 2025-26 NBA season, from win totals and playoff chances to NBA Finals and NBA MVP odds. Using exclusive DraftKings data on betting splits for every major listing, Sam Connon will shed some light on which picks are sharp plays and why.
Eastern Conference Win Total Futures
Top Pick: Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 43.5 Regular Season Wins (-105)
Swapping an injured Damian Lillard out for Myles Turner has 56% of bets going toward the Bucks clearing their win total this year. The sharp lean is in the opposite direction, though, since only 19% of the handle is on Milwaukee hitting the over. On the other hand, 44% of bets and 81% of the handle have gone towards the under. The East is looking like a free-for-all, where Giannis Antetokounmpo alone probably won’t guarantee a high seed. Doc Rivers has Milwaukee trending in the wrong direction, with their streak of six straight Central Division titles coming to an end last year.
- Cleveland Cavaliers O/U 56.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-115), Under (-105)
- New York Knicks O/U 53.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)
- Orlando Magic O/U 50.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-120), Under (-110)
- Atlanta Hawks O/U 47.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-105), Under (-115)
- Detroit Pistons O/U 46.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)
- Milwaukee Bucks O/U 43.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-115), Under (-105)
- Philadelphia 76ers O/U 42.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-105), Under (-115)
- Boston Celtics O/U 41.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-110), Under (-115)
- Indiana Pacers O/U 38.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (+100), Under (-120)
- Toronto Raptors O/U 38.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-115), Under (-105)
- Miami Heat O/U 36.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-115), Under (-110)
- Chicago Bulls O/U 32.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (+100), Under (-120)
- Charlotte Hornets O/U 25.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-115), Under (-105)
- Washington Wizards O/U 20.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-120), Under (+100)
- Brooklyn Nets O/U 20.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)
Western Conference Win Total Futures
Top Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 49.5 Regular Season Wins (-120)
Since coach Chris Finch took over full-time in 2021, the Timberwolves have made the playoffs four years in a row. Back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearances have the franchise riding high, too. And yet, Minnesota has reached 50 wins just once during this resurgent stretch. 56% of bets have the Timberwolves reaching that mark in 2025-26, but only 22% of the handle is on the over. The under is getting the sharps’ attention, with 78% of the handle coming from just 44% of bets. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Luka Garza and Josh Minott are gone from last year’s 49-win squad, replaced by Johnny Juzang and Jules Bernard.
- Oklahoma City Thunder O/U 62.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (+100), Under (-120)
- Denver Nuggets O/U 54.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-120), Under (-105)
- Houston Rockets O/U 53.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-105), Under (-120)
- Minnesota Timberwolves O/U 49.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (+100), Under (-120)
- Los Angeles Clippers O/U 48.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (+100), Under (-125)
- Los Angeles Lakers O/U 46.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-120), Under (+100)
- Golden State Warriors O/U 46.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (+100), Under (-120)
- San Antonio Spurs O/U 44.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-105), Under (-120)
- Memphis Grizzlies O/U 39.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)
- Dallas Mavericks O/U 39.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-115), Under (-105)
- Sacramento Kings O/U 36.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (+100), Under (-120)
- Portland Trailblazers O/U 34.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-115), Under (-105)
- Phoenix Suns O/U 30.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-120), Under (+100)
- New Orleans Pelicans O/U 30.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-105), Under (-115)
- Utah Jazz O/U 18.5 Regular Season Wins
- Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)
Eastern Conference Playoff Picture
- Cleveland Cavaliers To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (-20000), No (+3000)
- New York Knicks To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (-5000), No (+1600)
- Orlando Magic To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (-1800), No (+900)
- Atlanta Hawks To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (-750), No (+500)
- Detroit Pistons To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (-525), No (+270)
- Milwaukee Bucks To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (-310), No (+240)
- Philadelphia 76ers To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (-200), No (+160)
- Boston Celtics To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (-165), No (+135)
- Toronto Raptors To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (+115), No (-140)
- Indiana Pacers To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (+120), No (-145)
- Miami Heat To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (+150), No (-190)
- Chicago Bulls To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (+450), No (-650)
- Charlotte Hornets To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (+1000), No (-2000)
- Brooklyn Nets To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (+1800), No (-6000)
- Washington Wizards To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (+2200), No (-10000)
Toronto Raptors To Make the Playoffs – Yes (+115)
More bettors are partial to the Raptors making the playoffs than not, with 69% of bets going towards the team returning to the postseason for the first time since 2022. Beyond that, though, 98% of the handle is on Toronto reaching the playoffs, signifying a major sharp lean in the team’s favor. Brandon Ingram is finally slated to join the rotation, while top-10 pick Collin Murray-Boyles will add depth to the frontcourt as well. Then there’s young guns Ja’Kobe Walter, Jonathan Mogbo, Ochai Agbaji and Gradey Dick, who are looking to break out in their own right.
Western Conference Playoff Picture
- Oklahoma City Thunder To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (-20000), No (+3000)
- Denver Nuggets To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (-5000), No (+1500)
- Houston Rockets To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (-2000), No (+850)
- Minnesota Timberwolves To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (-600), No (+425)
- Los Angeles Clippers To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (-400), No (+300)
- Los Angeles Lakers To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (-350), No (+270)
- Golden State Warriors To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (-320), No (+245)
- San Antonio Spurs To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (-160), No (+125)
- Dallas Mavericks To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (+115), No (-140)
- Memphis Grizzlies To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (+160), No (-200)
- Sacramento Kings To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (+330), No (-450)
- Portland Trailblazers To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (+390), No (-550)
- Phoenix Suns To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (+650), No (-1000)
- New Orleans Pelicans To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (+650), No (-1000)
- Utah Jazz To Make the Playoffs
- Odds: Yes (+3000), No (-20000)
Golden State Warriors To Make the Playoffs – No (+245)
The general market is pretty split on the Warriors at the moment, with 51% of bets on the team making the playoffs and 49% of bets on them missing out. There is a heavy sharp lean towards Golden State failing to clinch a berth, though, with “no” accounting for 87% of the handle. Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler are all getting up there in years, after all. Even excluding the injury-plagued, rebuilding 2019-20 season, the Warriors have still missed the playoffs twice in the last five years. As star-studded as Golden State is, there is reason for hesitance when it comes to their outlook in 2025-26.
NBA Finals Futures
- Oklahoma City Thunder To Win Finals, +245
- Denver Nuggets To Win Finals, +600
- Cleveland Cavaliers To Win Finals, +850
- New York Knicks To Win Finals, +850
- Houston Rockets To Win Finals, +1100
- Minnesota Timberwolves To Win Finals, +1400
- Los Angeles Lakers To Win Finals, +1400
- Golden State Warriors To Win Finals, +1800
- Orlando Magic To Win Finals, +2200
- Los Angeles Clippers To Win Finals, +2500
- Dallas Mavericks To Win Finals, +2500
- Philadelphia 76ers To Win Finals, +3500
- Atlanta Hawks To Win Finals, +4500
- Milwaukee Bucks To Win Finals, +5000
- Detroit Pistons To Win Finals, +6000
- Boston Celtics To Win Finals, +6000
- San Antonio Spurs To Win Finals, +6500
- Indiana Pacers To Win Finals, +13000
- Memphis Grizzlies To Win Finals, +20000
- Miami Heat To Win Finals, +25000
- Toronto Raptors To Win Finals, +30000
- Sacramento Kings To Win Finals, +50000
- Phoenix Suns To Win Finals, +60000
- New Orleans Pelicans To Win Finals, +60000
- Chicago Bulls To Win Finals, +80000
- Portland Trailblazers To Win Finals, +80000
- Washington Wizards To Win Finals, +100000
- Charlotte Hornets To Win Finals, +100000
- Brooklyn Nets To Win Finals, +100000
- Utah Jazz To Win Finals, +100000
Denver Nuggets NBA Finals Winner (+600)
As the favorites to win it all, it checks out that the Thunder are drawing the most bets to emerge as NBA champions. A quarter of all bettors have Oklahoma City winning it all, but only 8% of the handle is on the reigning champs. Alternatively, the Nuggets rank second with 17% of bets, but first with 30% of the handle. That is almost double the handle on the Thunder and Cavaliers combined.
Denver has proven it can win it all with the Nikola Jokic-Jamal Murray-Aaron Gordon core, even if David Adelman has since replaced Mike Malone as coach. Now, Cameron Johnson, Jonas Valančiūnas, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown Jr. have replaced Michael Porter Jr., DeAndre Jordan, Russell Westbrook and Dario Šarić. Christian Braun, Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther have all come a long way over the past few years, too, giving the Nuggets more than enough talent and depth to make another deep run.
NBA Awards Futures
MVP
- Nikola Jokic (DEN), +220
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC), +250
- Luka Doncic (LAL), +380
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL), +950
- Victor Wembanyama (SAS), +1800
- Anthony Edwards (MIN), +2000
- Kevin Durant (HOU), +4500
- Jalen Brunson (NYK), +5000
- Cade Cunningham (DET), +5000
- Paolo Banchero (ORL), +7000
Luka Doncic to Win MVP (+380)
Nicola Jokic is the MVP favorite for good reason, considering the 30-year-old center has won the award three times and finished second in voting twice in the last five years. Voters’ attitudes towards Jokic have shifted, though, as he got beat out by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander despite averaging a triple-double and leading the league in PER, BPM and VORP. Luka Doncic could be the one to take advantage of the Jokic voter fatigue, now that he is a Laker through and through. LeBron James missing the start of the season – and being 41 years old – could open the door for Doncic to run the offense and put up wild numbers on offense. If he can avoid injuries and a disastrous season on defense while leading Los Angeles to a top-four seed, he could finally break through and win his first career MVP.
As it stands, Doncic accounts for 32% of the MVP bets. Jokic ranks second at 19%, followed by Victor Wembanyama at 12% and SGA at 5%. There is an even stronger sharp lean in Doncic’s direction, with the former Dallas Mavericks star accounting for 44% of the handle in the MVP futures market.
Rookie of the Year
- Cooper Flagg (DAL), -175
- Dylan Harper (SAS), +900
- Ace Bailey (UTA), +950
- VJ Edgecombe (PHI), +1000
- Tre Johnson (WAS), +1200
- Kon Knueppel (CHA), +2200
- Kasparas Jakucionis (MIA), +3000
- Jeremiah Fears (NOP), +4000
- Egor Demin (BRK), +4000
- Hansen Yang (POR), +4000
Defensive Player of the Year
- Victor Wembanyama (SAS), -175
- Chet Holmgren (OKC), +700
- Evan Mobley (CLE), +900
- Amen Thompson (HOU), +1400
- Dyson Daniels (ATL), +2200
- Luguentz Dort (OKC), +3500
- Bam Adebayo (MIA), +3500
- Anthony Davis (DAL), +3500
- Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM), +4000
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC), +5000
Most Improved Player
- Amen Thompson (HOU), +900
- Andrew Nembhard (IND), +1200
- Bennedict Mathurin (IND), +1500
- Deni Avdija (POR), +1700
- Matas Buzelis (CHI), +2000
- Ausar Thompson (DET), +2000
- Payton Pritchard (BOS), +2200
- Josh Giddey (CHI), +2200
- Shaedon Sharpe (POR), +3000
- Reed Sheppard (HOU), +3000
Sixth Man of the Year
- De’Andre Hunter (CLE), +750
- Naz Reid (MIN), +1000
- Anfernee Simons (BOS), +1000
- Jordan Clarkson (NYK), +1200
- Ty Jerome (MEM), +1400
- Payton Pritchard (BOS), +1600
- Gradey Dick (TOR), +1800
- Jared McCain (PHI), +2200
- Reed Sheppard (HOU), +2200
- Keldon Johnson (SAS), +2500
Clutch Player of the Year
- Jalen Brunson (NYK), +1000
- Anthony Edwards (MIN), +1000
- Luka Doncic (LAL), +1200
- Nikola Jokic (DEN), +1300
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC), +1500
- Stephen Curry (GS), +1700
- Kevin Durant (HOU), +1700
- De’Aaron Fox (SAS), +1800
- Cade Cunningham (DET), +1800
- Trae Young (ATL), +1800
Coach of the Year
- Jamahl Mosley (ORL), +550
- Ime Udoka (HOU), +550
- David Adelman (DEN), +600
- Quin Snyder (ATL), +800
- JJ Redick (LAL), +1400
- Mitch Johnson (SAS), +1400
- JB Bickerstaff (DET), +1400
- Mike Brown (NYK), +1800
- Mark Daigneault (OKC), +2000
- Chris Finch (MIN), +2200
Eastern Conference Stats to Know
Western Conference Stats to Know
