There’s no love lost between these two sides. In a summer friendly, the Italy side gave Israel a rough time, raining down curses and jeers on their way to victory. Of course, they ended up in the same UEFA qualifying group, and their first match was a testy 5-4 win for the Italians on a stoppage-time Sandro Tonali winner.
The stage is set for more drama on Tuesday, and the odds are stacked in favor of the Italians: Italy is a -525 favorite to win and +650 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Israel is listed at +1300.
Italy vs. Israel prediction, pick
Tuesday is a last-gasp effort for Israel. With six of eight group stage games played, they trail Italy by three points. As the Italians have played one fewer game, the deck is stacked against them. Letting the draw slip away in their first contest made this a must-win game, especially after suffering a humiliating 5-0 shelling against Norway in their last fixture.
If they want to get in this game, they need Manor Solomon to step up, and some form of defense. Surrendering 10 goals in their last two games isn’t going to cut it. It can’t all be offense. Perhaps manager Ran Ben-Shimon will be forced to make some changes on the back end.
Italy was no different in suffering a defeat to Norway, dropping the first game of the group stage 3-0. But they’ve rattled off four straight wins, putting them in a position to steal the lead in the group back. A win would at least clinch moving to the next stage of qualification, and another victory over Moldova could set up a winner-take-all showdown with Norway in November. But they can’t get ahead of themselves.
It isn’t easy to look at this on paper and see a way through for Israel. The first matchup was their chance to take points from this fixture, and they let it slip away. With the shape their defense is in, expect the Italians to be pouring through the back line all night, leading to a convincing win that ends Israel’s hopes of World Cup football.
