Rookie halfback Woody Marks made waves with a breakout performance back in Week 4, but the hype train may have gotten rolling a little too quickly once he fell back into a 1B role behind Nick Chubb in Week 5. The Texans were on a bye in Week 6, meaning we still have just two games of data since Marks’ breakout game to draw conclusions from. The Houston backfield now appears a little bit murky, but there’s one key factor to consider in deciphering the outlook for each player in fantasy football.
So, is Nick Chubb or Woody Marks the better fantasy option in Week 7?
Analysis
Nick Chubb led the Texans’ backfield through the opening three weeks of the season, but he wasn’t exactly the most effective player with some largely unimpressive stat lines and just 27.2 combined fantasy points in PPR formats. The team began the year 0-3 and earned their first win in Week 4 once fourth-round rookie Woody Marks finally saw the majority of work, a contest in which he posted 27.9 PPR points with 119 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. As mentioned earlier, the hype train officially left the station as fantasy players declared him the new lead back in Houston. However, he saw just seven rush attempts and one target in Week 5 as Chubb saw more work with 11 carries for 61 yards and a score. Neither played over 39% of the snaps in that contest, with Marks seeing three more snaps than his counterpart.
That leaves us with a very blurry picture regarding the outlook of these two fantasy football assets. On one hand, Marks is the younger and more exciting talent, and the Texans clearly value him after trading future draft capital to move up and select him back in April. It’s tough to ignore that the offense looked much better with him involved, and his pass-catching upside does certainly help his case. However, he saw just one target in Week 5 during Houston’s blowout victory over a shorthanded Ravens team and didn’t get enough work to produce a usable fantasy day with just 2.4 PPR points. On the other hand, Chubb is an unexciting but dependable veteran who gets exactly the yardage asked of him but little more, and he doesn’t have upside as a receiver, either. After a truly split backfield saw neither really stand out in the Texans’ last game, what’s the answer moving forward for fantasy players?
Considering the skill sets of each player, it’s best to project them to produce in specific game scripts. Chubb largely takes the early-down work, so in games in which Houston should play from ahead, he’s likely the better starting option for fantasy football lineups. There’s greater potential for goal-line touches in these contests, so a touchdown or two could inflate his final stat lines on the virtual gridiron. However, Marks looks like the higher-upside option for contests that project neutral or negative game scripts for the Texans thanks to his pass-catching prowess. When the team’s offense struggles (particularly against strong pass-rush units or generally formidable defenses), C.J. Stroud may be forced to take the checkdown more often and target his running backs more than usual. These are the situations Marks can thrive in with his soft hands.
Until this split shows signs of leaning in one player’s favor or the other, it’s best to play the matchups in this fantasy backfield. For Week 7’s purposes, the Texans face the Seahawks, a very strong run defense which ranks second in EPA/rush, opponent rush yards per game, and yards per rush. Seattle also ranks sixth in points allowed per game and 13th in total opponent yards per contest, so this sets up a rather difficult matchup for Houston. Plus, they’re on the road at Lumen Field in front of a raucous 12th man crowd.
With that in mind, Marks feels like a much better starter in fantasy football for Week 7 since the Texans may struggle against this defense. The Seahawks’ pass rush is also ninth in sack percentage, so Stroud should face plenty of pressure throughout behind a poor offensive line. These factors set up plenty of receiving work for Marks if his team falls behind early against an offense which also ranks top-10 in points and yards per game. Chubb could end up phased out due to game script, and while not a smash start, the potential for a productive FLEX or RB2-level game from Marks makes him worth the selection this week.
