The Seattle Mariners are the only MLB team never to advance to the World Series and one of just five teams never to win baseball’s loftiest prize. But if they win three more games, the agonizing wait might be over, as they managed a 3-1 win over the Toronto Blue Jays last night in Game 1 of the AL Championship Series. Seattle currently has +210 odds to win the World Series at DraftKings Sportsbook, the second-shortest odds among the four remaining teams.
Game 2 will start at 5:03 p.m. ET tonight at the Rogers Centre in downtown Toronto. The Blue Jays will turn to rookie phenom Trey Yesavage, while Logan Gilbert will toe the rubber for the Mariners.
Toronto is a -132 favorite on the Moneyline, with the run total set to 7.5. Seattle is +109 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll take you through my three favorite player props from tonight’s all-important clash.
Mariners at Blue Jays Prop Bets for Game 2
Trey Yesavage 6+ Strikeouts (-117)
Expecting Yesavage to reproduce his masterpiece against the New York Yankees in Game 2 of the ALDS in his postseason debut would be foolhardy. That evening, the 22-year-old bedeviled New York for 5.1 innings, allowing no hits and one walk while striking out 11 in a 13-7 victory. His 11 punchouts were three more than any other Blue Jays pitcher in playoff history, and it would be unfair to expect record-breaking stuff every time out. But at every level, Yesavage has been a master at sitting batters down, amassing an unbelievable 14.7 strikeouts per nine innings in his sole minor league season and 13.6 per nine innings in his three seasons at East Carolina. His chase and whiff rates would both rank in the league’s top decile if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify.
The Mariners, meanwhile, struck out 11 times in Game 1 despite the victory, with Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, and Victor Robles getting fanned twice each. Seattle has struck out 69 times across six postseason games, recording the most average strikeouts per game of any playoff participant besides the Cincinnati Reds, who the Los Angeles Dodgers dispatched with ease in the Wild Card series. The Mariners’ big bats are all strikeout-prone, with Raleigh (14th percentile), Arozarena (12th), and Eugenio Suárez (fifth) all having bottom-sextile strikeout rates. In particular, Yesavage throws predominantly four-seam fastballs and sliders to right-handed batters, and Seattle’s leadoff hitter, Arozarena, has at least a 29% strikeout rate against both pitches.
Logan Gilbert U1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-104)
There are two reasons this prop could hit. First, Gilbert is a good pitcher in hot form, having posted a 2.52 ERA across his final seven starts of the regular season, and he gave up just one earned run in eight innings of work in the Division Series against the Detroit Tigers. He also will be starting on just two days’ rest after throwing two innings in the Mariners’ 15-inning marathon victory over the Tigers in Game 5. Though he threw only 34 pitches — roughly the same as he might make in a between-starts bullpen session — it’d be surprising if he pitched into the sixth inning. Bryce Miller finished the sixth inning on three days’ rest yesterday, so Seattle’s bullpen is as well-rested as it can be for a team that just played 15 innings three days ago.
The Blue Jays looked awful offensively last night, getting just two hits. It’s fairly likely that Toronto will perform better tonight, given that it had the league’s best offense in the second half of the regular season and hung 34 runs on the Yankees across four games, one of the most impressive displays of offense in MLB history. But the Blue Jays, as the league’s contact kings, rely heavily on balls in play, and the Mariners ranked seventh in fielding percentage and 12th in defensive efficiency this season. Toronto hit nearly 200 more balls to the right side than the left, and by and large, Seattle’s better defenders tend to play on the right side.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cal Raleigh 4+ Combined Total Bases (-114)
Betting on both teams’ best players is never a bad idea, especially when both have had tremendous postseasons so far. Raleigh was the Mariners’ hero last night, tying the game with a sixth-inning solo shot — his 62nd homer of the season — and he’s had the sixth-highest OPS among all playoff participants, slashing .400/.483/.680 and posting multiple total bases in four of his six postseason games so far. Three Blue Jays players rank ahead of Raleigh in OPS, including Guerrero, whose 1.315 leads all players. The 26-year-old Dominican-Canadian had multiple total bases in each of the first three games of the ALDS before going one-for-eight in his last two games, but he’s capable of heating up in an instant.
Both starting pitchers tonight play into each star’s strengths. Against lefties, Yesavage has thrown either a four-seamer or a splitter with 84% of his pitches, and while the switch-hitting Raleigh has only hit .209 against right-handed four-seam fastballs, he’s hit 15 homers against the pitch, and he’s also hit .269 against righty splitters. Plus, he should have a good chance to take advantage of Toronto’s bullpen, which has pitched to just a 4.63 ERA since the All-Star break. Gilbert, meanwhile, throws primarily four-seamers and sliders, and Guerrero has posted an expected batting average north of .300 and an expected slugging percentage north of .500 against both pitches.
