After a roller coaster season, the Los Angeles Dodgers are just eight wins away from becoming the first repeat World Series champions since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees. However, the team that gave them the most trouble this season — the Milwaukee Brewers, who swept all six games against the Dodgers — stands in their way, hoping to advance to the Fall Classic for just the second time in franchise history.
The regular season series between the teams proved critical, as Milwaukee finished with three more wins than Los Angeles and has hosting rights for four of the seven games in the National League Championship Series. Game 1 begins tonight at 8:08 p.m. ET in Wisconsin’s largest city.
The Dodgers are -156 favorites on the Moneyline, with the run total set to 7.5. The Brewers, meanwhile, are +128 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll take you through my three favorite player props from tonight’s tone-setting clash.
Dodgers at Brewers Prop Bets for Game 1
Blake Snell O2.5 Walks Allowed (+127)
Snell has been nothing short of masterful through his first two postseason starts, pitching 13 innings of five-hit, two-run ball and striking out 18 batters. The southpaw is arguably the X-factor in this series: he missed both of the teams’ regular season series with injuries but is expected to play a major factor in this series, starting two games and potentially appearing out of the bullpen in Game 7 if the series advances that far. There’s no reason not to expect him to be effective tonight.
The two-time Cy Young Award winner has exactly one flaw: his 18th-percentile walk rate. In part, his perceived lackluster control can be tied to back-to-back four-walk starts to open the season, when he was pitching through a shoulder issue that ultimately sidelined him for four months. However, he’s had a below-average walk rate for his entire career, thanks to his reliance on high chase rates. That could spell trouble against Milwaukee, which had the league’s most disciplined approach during the regular season and earned 18 free passes in its five-game win over the Chicago Cubs, the fourth-highest per game rate of the 12 playoff participants.
Snell issued four walks in Los Angeles’ Game 2 win over the Philadelphia Phillies during the NLDS despite the Phillies being one of the league’s least disciplined teams. He’ll likely pitch at least six innings, given that he’s on six days’ rest and can start Game 5 on four days’ rest, so the Brewers should have plenty of chances to get to him.
Aaron Ashby U1.5 Strikeouts (+114)
Milwaukee is utilizing Ashby as an opener for a bullpen game, and it’ll likely have 10 of its 12 pitchers available, excepting Game 2 starter Freddy Peralta and Jacob Misiorowski, who threw 54 pitches in Game 5 of the Brewers’ NLDS win two nights ago. Pat Murphy should have a quick hook on Ashby, who will likely last at most two innings, which is standard for him. It’s more likely that he’ll pitch just one, as regular cleanup hitter Freddie Freeman could be followed by a string of righties in Tommy Edman (a switch-hitter who’s better from that side), Will Smith, Alex Call, Enrique Hernández, and Andy Pages. Ashby has allowed an OPS 120 points higher against righties.
Assuming Murphy pulls Ashby after he faces Freeman, let’s take a look at the first four batters in the Dodgers’ likely lineup. Shohei Ohtani will hit leadoff, and while he’s a rather strikeout-prone lefty who struck out nine times in 18 at-bats in the NLDS, he’s two-for-two with a walk against Ashby this season and rarely whiffs against sinkers, his preferred pitch against southpaws. Following Ohtani will be Mookie Betts, who’s struck out just twice in 28 plate appearances so far these playoffs. Teoscar Hernández, hitting third, posted a career-low 17.5% strikeout rate against lefties, and Freeman also whiffs infrequently against sinkers. A lot would have to go wrong for two of Los Angeles’ first four batters to strike out against Ashby.
Jackson Chourio 1+ Singles (+101)
Even if Milwaukee loses this series, its future is still bright, in large part because of Chourio, who was the third-youngest player in the National League this season at just 21 years old. The Maracaibo, Venezuela native was tremendous during the NLDS, slashing .389/.421/.667 and recording at least one single in three of the five games. He also singled in each of the three games in the Brewers’ Wild Card series against the New York Mets last season.
This season, he’s absolutely mashed lefties to the tune of a .343 batting average, posting 30 singles in 149 plate appearances, so he should be pretty confident because all of the Dodgers’ most likely pitchers tonight, with the exception of closer Roki Sasaki, are southpaws. Snell also excels at limiting hard hits and fly balls, making it more likely that Chourio’s hits will be singles, not doubles or homers. Plus, Snell disproportionally throws four-seam fastballs and changeups against right-handed hitters, and Chourio batted .400 against lefty fastballs and .423 against lefty changeups this season.
