The Buccaneers are hosting the 49ers on Sunday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Tampa Bay is favored by 3.5 points, and this game carries a total of O/U 46.5 points.
Below, I’ll break down this matchup between the Buccaneers and the 49ers and give a pick for the game.
Buccaneers vs. 49ers prediction, pick
The Buccaneers and 49ers both sit at 4-1 entering this matchup, and both clubs are dealing with many injuries on offense. Mike Evans (hamstring), Bucky Irving (shoulder) and Chris Godwin Jr. (leg) are all out for Tampa Bay, while San Francisco will be without Brock Purdy (toe), George Kittle (hamstring) and Ricky Pearsall (knee). Jauan Jennings (ankle) is also questionable, but the wideout is trending towards playing after logging some full practices late this week.
While Tampa Bay is 4-1, the club doesn’t have a win by more than three points this season, and they rank just 16th in EPA despite their strong record. The Buccaneers have been very clutch in close games, and Baker Mayfield has been putting the team on his back. Thus far, Mayfield is averaging 7.5 YPA, and he has thrown 10 passing touchdowns to just one interception.
Rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka has been nothing short of spectacular and has taken full advantage of Evans and Godwin dealing with injuries, leading Tampa Bay with 163 and 101 receiving yards the last two weeks. Mayfield should heavily rely on Egbuka on Sunday, but this is a tough spot for the Buccaneers’ passing attack, as the 49ers are giving up the eighth-fewest YPA this season (6.1). If San Francisco can slow down this Mayfield to Egbuka pairing, the 49ers will put themselves in a great position to upset Tampa Bay, despite all of San Francisco’s injuries.
The 49ers rank 14th in EPA this season, and with Purdy, Kittle, Pearsall, and Jennings all out last week, the team went into Los Angeles and stunned the Rams with a 26-23 overtime win on Thursday Night Football. Mac Jones started at quarterback in place of Purdy in this victory, and the ex-Patriot has been awesome in his three starts for Purdy this season, leading San Francisco to a 3-0 record in those contests.
Jones has thrown for at least 278 yards in all three of these starts and he has thrown six touchdowns to just one pick. Given Purdy’s turnover tendencies this season, with four interceptions in his two games, the 49ers have been better with Jones under center this season and while not having Kittle and Pearsall to catch passes isn’t ideal, Jennings likely returning is a big boost for San Francisco’s offense and Jones and Kendrick Bourne have excellent chemistry, which was on full display last week. In the overtime win over the Rams, the veteran receiver hauled in 10 of his 11 targets from Jones for a career-high 142 yards. Last, but not least, Christian McCaffrey has been incredible as a pass catcher out of the backfield and the superstar back will continue to see huge volume from Jones on Sunday. This season, McCaffrey is leading all running backs in target share (26.6%) and he has generated 387 receiving yards, which ranks sixth among all skill players.
Just like last season, the Buccaneers have been a pass funnel defense this season, meaning they are stout at stopping the rush, but vulnerable through the air, and Jones should be able to move the ball with ease in this spot. Tampa Bay is allowing the 12th-most yards per pass (6.8), but the sixth-fewest yards per rush (3.8).
Buccaneers vs. 49ers pick, best bet
While the 49ers are the road team, this is an excellent spot for Jones to continue his inspiring play, while on the other side of this matchup, this is a potential spot for the Buccaneers to hit a wall.
San Francisco should be able to pull off another impressive road upset, and the 49ers are a great Moneyline underdog bet at +154 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
