Who could have predicted that the American League would come down to this?
The Toronto Blue Jays swiftly dispatched the New York Yankees in four games, punching their ticket to the AL Championship Series for the first time since 2016. Their celebration in Yankee Stadium’s visiting clubhouse was soundtracked by Frank Sinatra’s “New York, New York.”
Meanwhile, the Seattle Mariners ended a 24-year ALCS drought on Friday night in dramatic fashion. Jorge Polanco delivered a walk-off single in the 15th inning of a Game 5 instant classic against the Detroit Tigers — a swing that sent the starving Seattle crowd into absolute bedlam.
Now the clubs will duke it out for the AL pennant and a trip to the World Series. Toronto hasn’t reached the Fall Classic since winning it all in 1993, while Seattle is still chasing its first-ever appearance.
First pitch at Rogers Centre is scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET. Toronto enters as a -167 favorite, while Seattle is a +137 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays preview
Both the Blue Jays and Mariners entered October with a first-round bye — but their pitching staffs head into the Championship Series in strikingly different shapes.
The Blue Jays, who finished off the Yankees on Wednesday, are fully recharged and will hand the ball to ace Kevin Gausman for Game 1. The veteran right-hander enters with over a week’s rest, last delivering 5.2 innings of one-run ball in the ALDS opener on Oct. 4.
Making 31+ starts for the fifth straight season (32), Gausman owned a commanding 3.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 189 strikeouts across a career-high 193 innings. He boasts elite stuff across the board, with his Pitching Run Value, Fastball Run Value, and Offspeed Run Value all ranking in the top 4% of the league.
Gausman surrendered three earned runs over 5.1 innings against Seattle in May, but he only got more dominant as the season went on. The righty held a 2.78 ERA across five September starts — including a complete game shutout against the Astros on Sept. 11.
While the Jays enter the ALCS fully refreshed, the Mariners are completely drained from a laborious five-game set with the Tigers — capped by the longest winner-take-all postseason game in MLB history. Following five strong frames from George Kirby on Friday, Seattle made six calls to the bullpen to complete the 15-inning marathon, including starters Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo.
Without many options to choose from, Seattle will roll with right-hander Bryce Miller, who hasn’t been able to replicate last season’s dominance. Across 18 starts, Miller posted a bloated 5.68 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and just 74 strikeouts in 90.1 innings. His underlying metrics fail to paint a prettier picture, with his pitching run value of -15 ranking in the bottom tenth of the majors.
Miller allowed two runs across 4.1 innings against the Tigers in Game 4 of the Division Series. He faced the Blue Jays on May 11 — getting shelled for seven earned runs in just five innings, highlighted by a George Springer three-run bomb.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
Toronto’s lineup is headlined by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who went scorched earth on the Yankees with a 1.609 OPS, three home runs, and nine RBIs. But that’s not all, folks. The Blue Jays boast one of the most complete offenses in the game that can dole out punishment at spot in the order.
The Jays made a statement against New York, rattling off 50 hits and pushing across 34 runs across the four-game set — by far the most of any Division Series team. It came as no surprise that Toronto struck out less than any other squad, but it was quite a shock when they paced all eight teams with nine home runs.
Seattle counters with a dangerous lineup of its own. MVP contender and MLB home run king Cal Raleigh anchors a group that includes Julio Rodriguez and Jorge Polanco, the latter of whom homered twice off Tarik Skubal in Game 2 before delivering the walk-off hit in Game 5.
Still, it remains to be seen if the M’s can keep up with Toronto’s torrid pace — especially with such a compromised pitching staff. New York rookie Cam Schlittler, who went 6.1 innings against the Jays, was the only Yankee starter to come back out for the fourth inning.
If the Blue Jays jump on the struggling Miller the way they did the Yankees, Seattle’s bullpen could be in total chaos before the game is halfway over.
