After an excellent start to the season, the Chargers lost two straight to the Giants and Commanders. Luckily, the team will get an easier road matchup against the Dolphins on Sunday, Oct. 12.
Miami is 1-4 and desperately needs a win to salvage the season. The team has only beaten the Jets, and has lost to the Panthers, Colts, Patriots and Bills.
Los Angeles is a 4.5-point favorite and -218 on the moneyline, while Miami is +180 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 44.5 points.
Here are my favorite player props for this Week 6 NFL game between the Chargers and Dolphins.
Chargers vs. Dolphins Best Prop Bets
Ladd McConkey over 4.5 receptions (-147)
Ladd McConkey had a stellar rookie season, tallying 1,149 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on 82 receptions. Many expected him to be the Chargers’ No. 1 receiver in 2025, but he’s fallen to No. 3 behind Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen.
Johnston leads the team with 377 yards, while Allen is second with 289. McConkey is third at 213 yards, averaging 10.1 yards per reception, which is down from 14 last year. The touchdowns are also in favor of Johnston (four) and Allen (three), while McConkey has one.
The first five games have been a bit disappointing, but McConkey should improve throughout the rest of the season. Week 6 is a good time for this to begin as the Chargers face the Dolphins. Miami allows the 29th most overall yards and 16th most passing yards to opposing teams.
While the run defense is far worse in Miami, Los Angeles is down its top two running backs. Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton are injured, leaving Hassan Haskins, Kimani Vidal and Nyheim Miller-Hines in the backfield.
It’s not the most dangerous bunch, which means the Chargers may lean on their passing game instead. The trio of wide receivers is much more impressive, especially paired with Justin Herbert. McConkey is arguably the best wide receiver of the group, even though the early-season stats side with Johnston and Allen.
McConkey’s receptions line is set at over/under 4.5 (-147). It’s a steep price, but it’s worth taking considering McConkey has hit the over in three of five games this year. He’s doing this in as the third option in the offense this season.
Tua Tagovailoa over 0.5 interceptions (-125)
Tua Tagovailoa threw an interception in each of his first three games this season, but he didn’t throw any in the past two games. Has he figured things out? Maybe, but it’s not likely.
Those two games were against the Jets and Panthers, two teams that could make any quarterback look good. Week 6 presents a much greater challenge: the Chargers. Los Angeles features a stout defense that allows the sixth fewest points and seventh fewest yards. These numbers are even better against the pass: fourth in yards and second in touchdowns, while grabbing the 14th most interceptions.
This is a dangerous recipe for Tagovailoa, who has four interceptions this season. With the Chargers likely taking a big lead, Tagovailoa will need to pass in order to cut the deficit quick. That gives Los Angeles more opportunities to make an interception.
Tua Tagovailoa over 33.5 pass attempts (-122)
This somewhat coincides with the previous prop bet for Tagovailoa to throw an interception. While that would take him off the field, it shouldn’t be too long that it impacts his pass attempts.
Tagovailoa has thrown 36, 34, 32, 25 and 23 passes in games this year. The two marks below 30 were in a blowout loss to the Colts in Week 1 and a victory against the Jets in Week 4. This game with the Chargers should mirror the other three.
Los Angeles should take a lead, which means Tagovailoa will need to throw more often. It shouldn’t be such a blowout that the Chargers are milking the clock, but it should be enough of a lead that the Dolphins need to play quick offense.