The Pittsburgh Steelers are back from their bye week and will play the the Cleveland Browns in a Week 6 AFC North matchup.
The Steelers are off to a 3-1 start while the Browns are 1-4, with their lone victory being a surprising win over the Packers. Dillon Gabriel has taken the reins as the starting quarterback in Cleveland, with Joe Flacco being traded to the Cincinnati Bengals earlier this week. This will be Gabriel’s second career start and first divisional matchup.
Pittsburgh is a six-point favorite and holds -278 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Browns are +225 odds, and the game total is set at 37.5.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 6 Browns vs. Steelers matchup.
Browns vs. Steelers Best Prop Bets
Aaron Rodgers Under 211.5 Passing Yards (-113)
At 41 years old, Aaron Rodgers certainly benefitted from this time off. While his level of play has been encouraging to start this season, he’s not in his prime anymore.
The four-time MVP has completed 68.5% of his passes for 786 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions. Rodgers is averaging 196.5 passing yards per game, and he hasn’t hit over 211.5 passing yards in each of his past three games. This is partially by design, with Pittsburgh ranking 30th in the league in pass attempts per game. Rodgers has attempted just 23 and 22 pass attempts over his previous two starts.
Cleveland has a stout defense, which makes this outlook more bleak. The Browns have given up the second fewest yards overall and rank fourth in passing yards allowed at 172.2 per game. Myles Garrett is playing some of the best football of his career, and Rodgers will be cautious to avoid major hits.
David Njoku to Record 5+ Receptions (+142)
The Cleveland Browns drafted David Njoku with the 29th overall pick in the 2017 draft. The former Pro Bowler has 20 receptions for 195 yards and one touchdown on the season. Njoku has tallied as many as 81 receptions for 882 receiving yards and six touchdowns, with this career-best season occurring in 2023.
Njoku looks to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the quarterback change. Tight ends are always a reliable safety blanket for young quarterbacks, but this is especially the case with Gabriel. The Oregon product is at his best when getting the ball out of his hands quickly and making short reads at the line of scrimmage. One start is too insignificant to dive into any sort of legitimate statistical takeaway, but this processing shows itself in his Oregon film. Gabriel posted just 2.5 completed air yards per pass attempt last week.
In Gabriel’s first start, Njoku pulled in six receptions on nine targets for 67 yards and a touchdown, leading the team in each category. He has tallied five or more receptions twice this season, and this should be expected to continue as his chemistry grows with Gabriel. Njoku has 30 games with at least five receptions, and the Steelers are allowing 5.25 receptions per game to tight ends this season.
David Njoku Anytime Touchdown (+475)
To take it a step further, these same general principles apply in the red zone. Njoku notched his first touchdown of the season last week with Gabriel as his quarterback. Njoku has 31 receiving touchdowns in his career, which comes out to an average of five per year over a 17-game season.
This is a friendly matchup for him to add to his touchdown numbers, as Pittsburgh has allowed the fifth-most touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season. Hunter Henry scored two touchdowns against the Steelers this year, and Tory Horton also scored a touchdown. While there was some concern over rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr. eating into Njoku’s role, there is room for both in the offense. The pair of tight ends rank first and second on the team in targets and receptions. Both also managed to record a touchdown last week.
